2023 ZiPS Projections: Texas Rangers

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Texas Rangers.

Batters

The Rangers undergo rebuilding with a refreshing urgency you don’t always see, though that’s hardly surprising since they’re not actually a small-market team. While their previous rebuild kinda struck out, that one, which I always refer to as the “skinny rebuild,” wasn’t quite as focused as this go-around. This time, while they’re developing their talent from within, they’re also going after top free agents, guys who are likely to still be good the next time the Rangers are a contending team, and who are of a caliber that’s hard to develop yourself. A lot of teams blunder this approach, deciding to gird their rebuilding loins with quantity rather than actual quality. That’s kind of what the Padres did in the early going, first acquiring Matt Kemp as if he were a foundational talent and then giving an absurdly large deal to the very ordinary Eric Hosmer. The Rangers haven’t made a bunch of confusingly gigantic commitments to middling players; they signed average players to fairly short, sensible deals (Jon Gray, Martín Pérez, Andrew Heaney) while going all-out for the players who can really make a difference (Jacob deGrom, Corey Seager, and Marcus Semien).

Now, as a contender, the Rangers are still an incomplete squad, as you can see when looking at the offensive projections. The middle infield is absolutely elite and while Nathaniel Lowe isn’t likely to hit .300 again, he’s an adequate starter who won’t reach free agency for another four years, even though it feels like he’s more of a veteran than that. Josh Jung’s cup of coffee was a bit bitter, but ZiPS believes he’s of a similar quality vintage as Lowe. Jonah Heim took a big step forward offensively and while nobody’s going to confuse him with J.T. Realmuto, his bat has improved enough to make his excellent defense matter quite a bit. Mitch Garver is a useful role player who can provide some additional pop while being able to more than fake it at catcher.

Where there’s still a problem is in the outfield. Leody Taveras’ defense gives him a serviceable floor, but he’s still not really an offensive plus. Adolis García is popular and has excellent power, but he isn’t young, his plate discipline is unimpressive, and he’s probably not as good in center field as his limited numbers in the majors suggest. However the playing time situation in left field works out, it’s likely to project at the bottom of the league. Bringing in someone like Bryan Reynolds would be very satisfying here. Even Michael Conforto would be interesting if the Rangers could agree with him on a framework where the team gets more than a short-term benefit if he’s healthy.

Pitchers

Jacob deGrom has to be considered an injury risk, but if he is healthy, who else would you prefer to have pitching for you? The rotation looks like a big improvement over what was projected this time last year, with Pérez’s outlook improved, and Gray and Heaney in the mix. Whether Dane Dunning or Jake Odorizzi end up as the fifth starter, it’s one of the better “last starter on paper” situations in the majors.

ZiPS sees the bullpen as middle-of-the-pack but with excellent depth. If you look at our current depth chart for the Rangers, you don’t get to a replacement-level reliever until Daniel Robert at 16th. And that depth chart doesn’t include someone ZiPS really likes, 2021 draftee Chase Lee. Steamer likes Lee as well, but not to the same degree as ZiPS. In terms of surprise, the last time a relief projection surprised me this much was Giovanny Gallegos before his breakout. Now, I’m naturally inclined to love sidearmers and submariners (Lee is more of the sidearmer type rather than one of the guys who almost drags a knuckle in the dirt), but ZiPS doesn’t know he’s one! Posting 2.63 FIP at Double-A and a 3.22 at Triple-A in a brutal environment for pitchers is pretty impressive. Like many sidearmers, Lee has quite significant platoon splits, so he’d fit more as a situational rightly reliever than in a jack-of-all-trades role.

I believe the Rangers are Wild Card contenders, but until they patch up their last few holes, they’re going to worry the Mariners more than they worry the Astros.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.

Source