
For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Texas Rangers.
Batters
The Rangers undergo rebuilding with a refreshing urgency you don’t always see, though that’s hardly surprising since they’re not actually a small-market team. While their previous rebuild kinda struck out, that one, which I always refer to as the “skinny rebuild,” wasn’t quite as focused as this go-around. This time, while they’re developing their talent from within, they’re also going after top free agents, guys who are likely to still be good the next time the Rangers are a contending team, and who are of a caliber that’s hard to develop yourself. A lot of teams blunder this approach, deciding to gird their rebuilding loins with quantity rather than actual quality. That’s kind of what the Padres did in the early going, first acquiring Matt Kemp as if he were a foundational talent and then giving an absurdly large deal to the very ordinary Eric Hosmer. The Rangers haven’t made a bunch of confusingly gigantic commitments to middling players; they signed average players to fairly short, sensible deals (Jon Gray, Martín Pérez, Andrew Heaney) while going all-out for the players who can really make a difference (Jacob deGrom, Corey Seager, and Marcus Semien).
Now, as a contender, the Rangers are still an incomplete squad, as you can see when looking at the offensive projections. The middle infield is absolutely elite and while Nathaniel Lowe isn’t likely to hit .300 again, he’s an adequate starter who won’t reach free agency for another four years, even though it feels like he’s more of a veteran than that. Josh Jung’s cup of coffee was a bit bitter, but ZiPS believes he’s of a similar quality vintage as Lowe. Jonah Heim took a big step forward offensively and while nobody’s going to confuse him with J.T. Realmuto, his bat has improved enough to make his excellent defense matter quite a bit. Mitch Garver is a useful role player who can provide some additional pop while being able to more than fake it at catcher.
Where there’s still a problem is in the outfield. Leody Taveras’ defense gives him a serviceable floor, but he’s still not really an offensive plus. Adolis García is popular and has excellent power, but he isn’t young, his plate discipline is unimpressive, and he’s probably not as good in center field as his limited numbers in the majors suggest. However the playing time situation in left field works out, it’s likely to project at the bottom of the league. Bringing in someone like Bryan Reynolds would be very satisfying here. Even Michael Conforto would be interesting if the Rangers could agree with him on a framework where the team gets more than a short-term benefit if he’s healthy.
Pitchers
Jacob deGrom has to be considered an injury risk, but if he is healthy, who else would you prefer to have pitching for you? The rotation looks like a big improvement over what was projected this time last year, with Pérez’s outlook improved, and Gray and Heaney in the mix. Whether Dane Dunning or Jake Odorizzi end up as the fifth starter, it’s one of the better “last starter on paper” situations in the majors.
ZiPS sees the bullpen as middle-of-the-pack but with excellent depth. If you look at our current depth chart for the Rangers, you don’t get to a replacement-level reliever until Daniel Robert at 16th. And that depth chart doesn’t include someone ZiPS really likes, 2021 draftee Chase Lee. Steamer likes Lee as well, but not to the same degree as ZiPS. In terms of surprise, the last time a relief projection surprised me this much was Giovanny Gallegos before his breakout. Now, I’m naturally inclined to love sidearmers and submariners (Lee is more of the sidearmer type rather than one of the guys who almost drags a knuckle in the dirt), but ZiPS doesn’t know he’s one! Posting 2.63 FIP at Double-A and a 3.22 at Triple-A in a brutal environment for pitchers is pretty impressive. Like many sidearmers, Lee has quite significant platoon splits, so he’d fit more as a situational rightly reliever than in a jack-of-all-trades role.
I believe the Rangers are Wild Card contenders, but until they patch up their last few holes, they’re going to worry the Mariners more than they worry the Astros.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.
B
Age
PO
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS
Marcus Semien
R
32
2B
686
617
102
163
34
4
29
81
62
118
16
5
Corey Seager
L
29
SS
591
526
83
142
31
2
24
78
55
95
2
1
Jonah Heim
B
28
C
388
353
41
86
19
2
13
44
31
73
2
1
Adolis García
R
30
RF
604
560
85
137
27
4
28
90
33
180
17
6
Nathaniel Lowe
L
27
1B
618
549
73
150
26
2
22
74
63
142
3
1
Josh H. Smith
L
25
3B
464
398
58
96
18
3
8
56
47
95
11
5
Justin Foscue
R
24
2B
413
372
50
92
26
1
12
63
28
86
1
2
Leody Taveras
B
24
CF
568
519
67
125
23
5
12
56
41
142
17
7
Mitch Garver
R
32
C
267
233
37
56
12
0
13
34
29
73
1
1
Mark Mathias
R
28
2B
357
316
40
75
16
1
11
53
33
93
9
2
Josh Jung
R
25
3B
280
260
32
65
14
1
12
44
16
78
2
1
Sam Huff
R
25
C
381
351
43
78
11
0
17
51
25
131
1
1
Ezequiel Duran
R
24
SS
529
493
64
119
28
4
16
70
28
147
11
6
Yohel Pozo
R
26
C
357
343
39
94
18
1
10
44
10
45
1
1
Bubba Thompson
R
25
CF
511
477
65
114
18
5
11
56
24
148
30
5
Zach Reks 렉스
L
29
RF
362
324
49
78
17
1
13
52
31
111
1
1
Eli White
R
29
CF
336
302
41
64
10
2
8
34
27
103
14
3
Kellen Strahm
R
26
RF
383
337
50
74
11
1
7
41
38
105
5
1
Jonathan Ornelas
R
23
SS
534
499
66
115
18
3
9
58
27
130
6
4
Trevor Hauver
L
24
LF
431
365
48
76
16
1
11
48
58
141
1
1
Ryan Dorow
R
27
SS
441
397
51
88
18
2
8
46
36
118
3
2
Aaron Zavala
L
23
RF
493
425
62
97
17
2
10
66
56
126
7
3
Dustin Harris
L
23
LF
422
384
54
97
17
2
13
55
30
89
10
3
Sandro Fabian
R
25
RF
361
337
41
81
15
1
11
49
15
78
1
1
Blaine Crim
R
26
1B
506
465
60
117
20
0
16
71
28
105
1
1
Evan Carter
L
20
CF
450
393
60
87
16
3
8
57
45
98
12
8
Kevin Plawecki
R
32
C
189
170
15
41
8
0
2
16
14
32
0
1
Davis Wendzel
R
26
SS
342
308
38
65
12
0
10
40
27
98
1
1
J.P. Martinez
L
27
CF
437
391
49
82
15
5
9
49
38
147
18
5
Scott Kapers
R
26
C
183
160
20
30
4
0
5
34
10
67
0
1
Jayce Easley
B
23
CF
306
262
42
55
8
2
2
27
36
75
17
4
Joe McCarthy
L
29
1B
317
282
37
62
13
1
9
40
29
89
2
1
Jax Biggers
L
26
3B
280
258
22
58
11
2
1
22
16
54
5
2
Thomas Saggese
R
21
2B
419
387
46
89
17
3
11
53
25
121
6
2
Brad Miller
L
33
LF
316
284
36
61
9
1
13
40
30
95
3
1
Diosbel Arias
R
26
2B
424
389
39
91
17
1
5
40
29
97
1
1
Sherten Apostel
R
24
1B
210
189
22
37
9
0
5
22
18
78
0
1
Frainyer Chavez
B
24
2B
353
318
34
71
11
2
1
31
28
85
6
3
Charlie Culberson
R
34
3B
207
191
21
45
10
1
4
19
11
53
3
2
Matt Whatley
R
27
C
236
211
24
43
7
0
3
19
17
67
2
2
Kole Calhoun
L
35
RF
397
355
41
72
15
1
13
44
34
115
2
1
David Garcia
B
23
C
306
285
28
61
12
0
4
29
15
86
0
1
Jack Kruger
R
28
C
244
228
18
51
7
1
2
21
12
56
1
1
Cody Freeman
R
22
C
416
378
42
85
12
1
8
45
28
83
4
3
Luisangel Acuña
R
21
SS
450
411
57
93
14
2
9
45
35
124
20
7
Elier Hernandez
R
28
RF
401
374
44
85
15
2
9
48
20
104
5
2
Angel Aponte
R
23
RF
253
229
32
51
10
1
3
30
15
70
8
3
Yosy Galan
R
22
LF
377
345
44
65
12
3
15
53
23
163
8
3
Chris Seise
R
24
DH
375
348
41
67
10
2
7
35
25
132
5
2
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
Marcus Semien
686
.264
.332
.473
120
.209
.285
6
4.8
.345
Corey Seager
591
.270
.343
.473
123
.203
.290
0
4.1
.348
Jonah Heim
388
.244
.304
.419
98
.176
.273
12
2.8
.312
Adolis García
604
.245
.293
.457
103
.213
.310
7
2.0
.319
Nathaniel Lowe
618
.273
.351
.448
120
.175
.332
-4
2.0
.346
Josh H. Smith
464
.241
.340
.362
95
.121
.298
4
1.8
.314
Justin Foscue
413
.247
.315
.419
101
.172
.292
1
1.6
.318
Leody Taveras
568
.241
.297
.374
84
.133
.310
7
1.6
.291
Mitch Garver
267
.240
.330
.459
115
.219
.293
-2
1.6
.340
Mark Mathias
357
.237
.317
.399
97
.161
.302
2
1.4
.311
Josh Jung
280
.250
.304
.450
105
.200
.312
2
1.3
.324
Sam Huff
381
.222
.281
.399
85
.177
.300
2
1.2
.294
Ezequiel Duran
529
.241
.287
.412
91
.170
.312
-3
1.2
.300
Yohel Pozo
357
.274
.297
.420
96
.146
.292
-2
1.2
.308
Bubba Thompson
511
.239
.281
.367
78
.128
.324
-2
0.5
.282
Zach Reks
362
.241
.318
.420
102
.179
.325
-4
0.4
.321
Eli White
336
.212
.289
.338
73
.126
.293
1
0.4
.278
Kellen Strahm
383
.220
.304
.320
74
.101
.298
7
0.3
.281
Jonathan Ornelas
534
.230
.276
.333
68
.102
.294
3
0.3
.266
Trevor Hauver
431
.208
.320
.348
86
.140
.305
1
0.3
.298
Ryan Dorow
441
.222
.293
.338
74
.116
.295
-3
0.2
.280
Aaron Zavala
493
.228
.333
.348
90
.120
.301
-3
0.2
.306
Dustin Harris
422
.253
.313
.409
98
.156
.298
-6
0.2
.313
Sandro Fabian
361
.240
.285
.389
84
.148
.282
2
0.2
.292
Blaine Crim
506
.252
.302
.398
92
.146
.294
0
0.2
.303
Evan Carter
450
.221
.310
.338
80
.117
.275
-3
0.1
.289
Kevin Plawecki
189
.241
.309
.324
76
.082
.287
-2
0.1
.283
Davis Wendzel
342
.211
.284
.347
74
.136
.275
-4
0.0
.279
J.P. Martinez
437
.210
.287
.343
74
.133
.311
-3
0.0
.279
Scott Kapers
183
.188
.280
.306
63
.119
.284
-1
0.0
.266
Jayce Easley
306
.210
.315
.279
67
.069
.286
-3
-0.1
.274
Joe McCarthy
317
.220
.300
.369
84
.149
.288
0
-0.2
.294
Jax Biggers
280
.225
.273
.295
58
.070
.281
3
-0.3
.252
Thomas Saggese
419
.230
.280
.375
79
.145
.306
-6
-0.3
.283
Brad Miller
316
.215
.291
.391
87
.176
.273
-4
-0.3
.296
Diosbel Arias
424
.234
.290
.321
70
.087
.300
-2
-0.3
.271
Sherten Apostel
210
.196
.271
.323
64
.127
.302
3
-0.4
.264
Frainyer Chavez
353
.223
.293
.280
60
.057
.302
0
-0.4
.259
Charlie Culberson
207
.236
.279
.361
76
.126
.306
-4
-0.4
.279
Matt Whatley
236
.204
.267
.280
52
.076
.284
-1
-0.4
.246
Kole Calhoun
397
.203
.280
.361
76
.158
.260
0
-0.5
.280
David Garcia
306
.214
.259
.298
54
.084
.292
-2
-0.6
.246
Jack Kruger
244
.224
.270
.289
56
.066
.288
-4
-0.6
.250
Cody Freeman
416
.225
.288
.325
70
.101
.268
-12
-0.9
.273
Luisangel Acuña
450
.226
.289
.336
73
.109
.302
-16
-1.1
.276
Elier Hernandez
401
.227
.274
.350
72
.123
.291
-5
-1.1
.273
Angel Aponte
253
.223
.286
.314
67
.092
.308
-10
-1.5
.267
Yosy Galan
377
.188
.252
.371
70
.183
.299
-10
-1.7
.270
Chris Seise
375
.193
.248
.293
49
.101
.287
0
-1.8
.240
Hit Comp 1
Hit Comp 2
Hit Comp 3
Marcus Semien
Charlie Gehringer
Ryne Sandberg
Ian Kinsler
Corey Seager
Kyle Seager
Aubrey Huff
Neil Walker
Jonah Heim
Mike Lieberthal
Wiki Gonzalez
Brian Schneider
Adolis García
Danny Santana
Billy Cowan
John Shelby
Nathaniel Lowe
Norm Siebern
Keith Hernandez
Joey Votto
Josh H. Smith
Quilvio Veras
Hoy Park
Rudy Meoli
Justin Foscue
Greg Schultz
Gordon Beckham
Davey Williams
Leody Taveras
Bill Flowers
Fred Valentine
Mookie Wilson
Mitch Garver
Jim Pagliaroni
Ken O’Dea
Devin Mesoraco
Mark Mathias
Buddy Blattner
Tony Bernazard
Junior Spivey
Josh Jung
Juan Guerrero
Kevin Mitchell
Winston Llenas
Sam Huff
Jody Davis
Jim Campbell
Deivy Grullón
Ezequiel Duran
Alfonso Soriano
Eduardo Perez
Adalberto Mondesi
Yohel Pozo
Toby Hall
Joe Azcue
Kevin Pasley
Bubba Thompson
Bobby Mitchell
Carlos Gómez
Scott Bullett
Zach Reks
Jeremy Hermida
Bill Terry
Jack Pierce
Eli White
Herm Winningham
Gale Wade
Reggie Thomas
Kellen Strahm
Joe Klein
Neil Martin
Joe Zdeb
Jonathan Ornelas
Willi Castro
Marco Hernandez
Kiko Garcia
Trevor Hauver
Vernon Ramie
Ryan Noda
Brian Stavisky
Ryan Dorow
Brandon Crawford
George Strickland
Terry Harmon
Aaron Zavala
Scott Reid
Bob Farley
Warren Newson 뉴선
Dustin Harris
Bobby Tolan
Marquis Grissom
Jerry White
Sandro Fabian
Mike Marchiano
Greg Morrison
Ben Abner
Blaine Crim
Ron MacDonald
Tony Torchia
Douglas King
Evan Carter
Lenny Dykstra
Gary Thomasson
Sheldon Mallory
Kevin Plawecki
Junior Ortiz
Lavern Grace
Jose Yepez
Davis Wendzel
David Masters
Niko Vasquez
Jim Crowley
J.P. Martinez
Earl Robinson
Demond Smith
Reggie Thomas
Scott Kapers
B.J. Richardson
Jeff Lanning
Jack Mull
Jayce Easley
Dre Jacas
James Zgorzelski
Bill North
Joe McCarthy
Cody Asche
Joe Wallis
Preston Ward
Jax Biggers
Jared Mathis
Christian Stringer
Evel Bastida
Thomas Saggese
Ryan Adams
Travis Wilson
Ron Gardenhire
Brad Miller
Nolan Reimold
Ruben Rivera
Chris Richard
Diosbel Arias
Ruben Salazar
Tyler Smith
Ivan de Jesus
Sherten Apostel
Craig Massoni
Troy Sieber
Wil Sowers
Frainyer Chavez
Evan Pratte
Derek Mann
Ramon Sambo
Charlie Culberson
Mike Mordecai
Terry Shumpert
Mike Benjamin
Matt Whatley
Bob Kappesser
Jan Vazquez
Patrick Arlis
Kole Calhoun
Rick Lancellotti
Horace Garner
Ed Stevens
David Garcia
Gary Jones
Daniel Salters
Pat Britt
Jack Kruger
Luis De La Cruz
Samuel Mauney
David Richards
Cody Freeman
Trevor Brown
Marty Martinson
Rob Johnson
Luisangel Acuña
Antonio Perez
Hiram Bocachica
Marcus Sanders
Elier Hernandez
Derek Reid
Brian Cornelius
Mel McGaha
Angel Aponte
Vance Vizcaino
P.J. Polk
Bo Rein
Yosy Galan
Andrew Dyes
Jeremy Moore
Tom Demerit
Chris Seise
Tim Morris
Jared Bolden
Kyle Petty
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Marcus Semien
.287
.356
.530
138
6.4
.241
.307
.423
99
3.3
Corey Seager
.292
.366
.532
144
5.5
.243
.319
.425
105
2.7
Jonah Heim
.279
.336
.488
123
4.0
.218
.278
.358
77
1.8
Adolis García
.270
.317
.517
124
3.6
.217
.265
.402
83
0.6
Nathaniel Lowe
.297
.378
.495
138
3.4
.244
.324
.404
102
0.6
Josh H. Smith
.268
.364
.411
114
2.9
.218
.310
.323
78
0.9
Justin Foscue
.272
.339
.466
118
2.4
.225
.293
.364
82
0.5
Leody Taveras
.261
.320
.419
99
2.5
.216
.274
.331
67
0.4
Mitch Garver
.267
.356
.516
136
2.2
.210
.301
.395
93
0.9
Mark Mathias
.262
.344
.452
115
2.3
.210
.290
.350
78
0.6
Josh Jung
.274
.328
.513
128
2.1
.221
.273
.392
84
0.5
Sam Huff
.250
.305
.461
109
2.3
.192
.251
.346
65
0.2
Ezequiel Duran
.267
.311
.466
112
2.6
.219
.265
.370
74
0.0
Yohel Pozo
.304
.324
.473
116
2.1
.245
.268
.371
75
0.2
Bubba Thompson
.264
.306
.413
94
1.5
.213
.256
.327
60
-0.6
Zach Reks
.269
.344
.473
122
1.3
.214
.288
.374
83
-0.4
Eli White
.243
.319
.390
94
1.2
.185
.258
.294
52
-0.5
Kellen Strahm
.247
.332
.369
92
1.1
.195
.276
.279
55
-0.6
Jonathan Ornelas
.254
.300
.371
83
1.3
.206
.253
.299
54
-0.6
Trevor Hauver
.237
.349
.396
104
1.3
.181
.290
.294
65
-0.8
Ryan Dorow
.252
.321
.387
93
1.2
.195
.266
.294
54
-0.8
Aaron Zavala
.255
.359
.399
110
1.4
.199
.306
.305
70
-0.9
Dustin Harris
.278
.336
.456
115
1.1
.226
.289
.360
80
-0.8
Sandro Fabian
.272
.313
.442
105
1.1
.216
.258
.336
64
-0.7
Blaine Crim
.279
.325
.448
111
1.3
.228
.278
.354
75
-1.0
Evan Carter
.246
.335
.385
98
1.1
.195
.283
.296
62
-0.9
Kevin Plawecki
.272
.337
.366
96
0.6
.210
.280
.280
56
-0.4
Davis Wendzel
.237
.313
.408
96
0.9
.181
.253
.301
54
-0.9
J.P. Martinez
.238
.312
.394
93
1.0
.183
.258
.292
54
-1.2
Scott Kapers
.222
.311
.365
85
0.5
.160
.256
.255
42
-0.5
Jayce Easley
.238
.343
.325
86
0.6
.183
.288
.243
50
-0.7
Joe McCarthy
.247
.331
.418
105
0.7
.191
.271
.319
63
-0.9
Jax Biggers
.254
.303
.342
78
0.4
.196
.245
.257
40
-0.9
Thomas Saggese
.254
.304
.419
98
0.7
.205
.256
.328
62
-1.2
Brad Miller
.238
.315
.445
107
0.5
.185
.264
.331
66
-1.1
Diosbel Arias
.259
.315
.358
86
0.6
.207
.265
.285
53
-1.2
Sherten Apostel
.219
.296
.367
82
0.1
.170
.244
.275
44
-0.9
Frainyer Chavez
.247
.318
.312
75
0.3
.198
.270
.247
47
-1.0
Charlie Culberson
.265
.307
.410
98
0.1
.209
.254
.312
58
-0.9
Matt Whatley
.234
.301
.322
71
0.2
.172
.235
.237
32
-1.0
Kole Calhoun
.232
.308
.426
102
0.7
.176
.253
.313
58
-1.4
David Garcia
.245
.288
.340
73
0.1
.188
.235
.256
37
-1.3
Jack Kruger
.259
.306
.336
77
0.0
.192
.239
.253
36
-1.3
Cody Freeman
.254
.320
.379
91
0.2
.193
.259
.281
51
-1.9
Luisangel Acuña
.251
.315
.385
90
-0.2
.205
.265
.295
56
-2.1
Elier Hernandez
.251
.300
.404
92
-0.1
.204
.248
.310
54
-2.0
Angel Aponte
.251
.314
.366
87
-0.9
.198
.260
.270
50
-2.1
Yosy Galan
.218
.282
.431
92
-0.7
.159
.225
.315
46
-2.9
Chris Seise
.217
.275
.335
68
-0.9
.170
.223
.253
34
-2.5
T
Age
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
Jacob deGrom
R
35
8
3
2.59
17
17
100.7
72
29
10
20
138
Chase Lee
R
24
2
2
3.51
50
0
56.3
49
22
5
18
58
Brett Martin
L
28
4
3
3.58
57
1
55.3
55
22
5
16
46
José Leclerc
R
29
3
2
3.81
53
0
59.0
47
25
6
28
68
Brock Burke
L
26
5
5
3.92
38
8
78.0
68
34
9
27
79
Jon Gray
R
31
8
7
3.96
23
23
127.3
112
56
15
42
128
Josh Sborz
R
29
3
2
3.99
44
1
47.3
41
21
5
22
56
Lucas Jacobsen
L
27
1
1
4.03
29
2
29.0
23
13
3
16
36
Marc Church
R
22
4
5
4.13
39
0
52.3
46
24
8
17
62
Martín Pérez
L
32
8
9
4.13
29
27
159.0
158
73
18
55
131
Andrew Heaney
L
32
5
5
4.14
21
18
91.3
80
42
14
26
112
John King
L
28
4
4
4.21
42
2
62.0
64
29
7
17
43
Spencer Patton
R
35
2
3
4.30
35
0
37.7
35
18
4
18
37
Yerry Rodriguez
R
25
3
3
4.34
40
10
66.3
62
32
7
30
64
Daniel Robert
R
28
3
3
4.41
32
0
34.7
32
17
5
18
38
Cody Bradford
L
25
6
8
4.42
23
23
106.0
107
52
15
30
91
Nick Snyder
R
27
2
1
4.42
39
1
36.7
34
18
5
16
38
Jonathan Hernández
R
26
5
5
4.43
38
6
65.0
61
32
7
35
63
Joe Barlow
R
27
2
3
4.44
46
0
46.7
39
23
6
23
46
Owen White
R
23
6
7
4.47
17
16
88.7
84
44
12
32
81
Cole Ragans
L
25
6
7
4.49
24
24
110.3
107
55
14
44
97
Jesus Tinoco
R
28
2
2
4.58
46
2
59.0
56
30
8
27
52
Zak Kent
R
25
3
5
4.58
22
20
94.3
95
48
13
35
82
Matt Moore
L
34
3
4
4.61
43
6
68.3
62
35
10
32
68
Grant Anderson
R
26
2
3
4.65
42
0
60.0
57
31
8
25
58
Bradford Webb
R
25
3
4
4.68
22
7
57.7
57
30
7
27
50
Dane Dunning
R
28
5
6
4.73
26
25
133.3
135
70
19
48
122
Avery Weems
L
26
3
5
4.74
23
16
81.7
81
43
12
29
77
Taylor Hearn
L
28
5
7
4.76
32
12
96.3
92
51
14
40
93
Spencer Howard
R
26
5
6
4.79
22
18
82.7
79
44
12
33
81
Ryder Ryan
R
28
3
5
4.80
41
0
50.7
48
27
6
26
46
Tim Brennan
R
26
4
5
4.81
18
14
67.3
73
36
9
16
39
Fernery Ozuna
R
27
3
3
4.83
42
0
54.0
52
29
7
20
49
Jake Odorizzi
R
33
5
8
4.84
21
21
100.3
103
54
17
36
87
Hever Bueno
R
28
2
3
4.87
29
0
40.7
39
22
5
25
40
Glenn Otto
R
27
6
9
4.93
25
24
118.7
114
65
17
50
108
Justin Anderson
R
30
1
1
4.96
36
0
32.7
29
18
5
21
38
Garrett Richards
R
35
3
4
4.99
27
10
70.3
76
39
11
28
58
Jake Latz
L
27
3
4
5.00
19
13
66.7
66
37
10
34
61
Tyler Thomas
L
27
1
3
5.04
27
0
44.7
43
25
6
23
41
Grant Wolfram
L
26
2
3
5.04
29
5
55.3
53
31
8
35
56
Cole Winn
R
23
6
9
5.10
26
26
113.0
108
64
14
70
99
Nick Starr
R
26
1
3
5.10
27
0
30.0
31
17
5
14
26
Dallas Keuchel
L
35
5
7
5.13
19
19
93.0
107
53
12
40
65
Jack Leiter
R
23
5
8
5.13
23
22
94.7
90
54
14
52
88
Drew Strotman
R
26
4
5
4.80
30
10
69.3
70
37
8
39
62
Steve Villines
R
27
2
3
5.21
25
0
38.0
42
22
6
15
24
Nick Tropeano
R
32
2
3
5.25
16
7
48.0
48
28
7
27
41
Joe Corbett
R
26
2
3
5.27
34
0
41.0
40
24
7
19
38
Noah Bremer
R
27
2
4
5.40
15
9
51.7
57
31
9
22
38
Justin Slaten
R
25
3
5
5.43
21
9
56.3
56
34
9
33
55
Antoine Kelly
L
23
2
4
5.50
24
22
91.7
80
56
11
72
97
Ricky Vanasco
R
24
3
4
5.53
22
22
81.3
79
50
14
54
81
Kohei Arihara
R
30
3
7
5.55
19
16
73.0
81
45
13
25
50
Jason Bahr
R
28
2
4
5.56
19
7
55.0
55
34
8
35
48
Greg Holland
R
37
1
4
5.97
37
0
34.7
35
23
8
17
33
Tyree Thompson
R
26
0
1
6.87
11
1
18.3
19
14
3
14
12
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Jacob deGrom
100.7
12.3
1.8
0.9
5.1%
35.5%
.282
165
2.36
61
3.0
Chase Lee
56.3
9.3
2.9
0.8
7.7%
24.8%
.291
122
3.37
82
0.7
Brett Martin
55.3
7.5
2.6
0.8
6.8%
19.4%
.301
120
3.59
84
0.7
José Leclerc
59.0
10.4
4.3
0.9
11.1%
27.0%
.281
112
3.85
89
0.6
Brock Burke
78.0
9.1
3.1
1.0
8.3%
24.2%
.282
109
3.82
92
1.1
Jon Gray
127.3
9.0
3.0
1.1
7.9%
24.1%
.284
108
3.78
93
2.0
Josh Sborz
47.3
10.6
4.2
1.0
10.6%
27.1%
.303
107
3.55
93
0.4
Lucas Jacobsen
29.0
11.2
5.0
0.9
12.5%
28.1%
.290
106
3.67
94
0.3
Marc Church
52.3
10.7
2.9
1.4
7.7%
28.1%
.292
104
3.86
97
0.3
Martín Pérez
159.0
7.4
3.1
1.0
8.1%
19.2%
.295
103
4.13
97
2.1
Andrew Heaney
91.3
11.0
2.6
1.4
6.9%
29.8%
.297
103
3.74
97
1.2
John King
62.0
6.2
2.5
1.0
6.4%
16.3%
.292
102
4.20
98
0.4
Spencer Patton
37.7
8.8
4.3
1.0
10.9%
22.4%
.298
99
4.08
101
0.1
Yerry Rodriguez
66.3
8.7
4.1
0.9
10.4%
22.2%
.297
98
4.13
102
0.6
Daniel Robert
34.7
9.9
4.7
1.3
11.7%
24.7%
.297
97
4.48
103
0.0
Cody Bradford
106.0
7.7
2.5
1.3
6.7%
20.3%
.296
97
4.24
103
1.2
Nick Snyder
36.7
9.3
3.9
1.2
9.9%
23.5%
.293
97
4.24
103
0.2
Jonathan Hernández
65.0
8.7
4.8
1.0
11.9%
21.4%
.297
97
4.37
104
0.5
Joe Barlow
46.7
8.9
4.4
1.2
11.4%
22.9%
.266
96
4.46
104
0.1
Owen White
88.7
8.2
3.2
1.2
8.4%
21.3%
.287
96
4.24
104
1.0
Cole Ragans
110.3
7.9
3.6
1.1
9.2%
20.3%
.292
95
4.35
105
1.1
Jesus Tinoco
59.0
7.9
4.1
1.2
10.4%
20.1%
.284
93
4.63
107
0.1
Zak Kent
94.3
7.8
3.3
1.2
8.6%
20.0%
.297
93
4.41
107
0.9
Matt Moore
68.3
9.0
4.2
1.3
10.7%
22.8%
.283
93
4.56
108
0.4
Grant Anderson
60.0
8.7
3.8
1.2
9.5%
22.1%
.293
92
4.45
109
0.0
Bradford Webb
57.7
7.8
4.2
1.1
10.7%
19.8%
.296
91
4.51
109
0.4
Dane Dunning
133.3
8.2
3.2
1.3
8.3%
21.0%
.301
91
4.46
110
1.0
Avery Weems
81.7
8.5
3.2
1.3
8.2%
21.8%
.299
90
4.46
111
0.7
Taylor Hearn
96.3
8.7
3.7
1.3
9.5%
22.2%
.292
90
4.45
111
0.6
Spencer Howard
82.7
8.8
3.6
1.3
9.2%
22.6%
.294
89
4.42
112
0.6
Ryder Ryan
50.7
8.2
4.6
1.1
11.5%
20.4%
.292
89
4.65
112
-0.2
Tim Brennan
67.3
5.2
2.1
1.2
5.6%
13.6%
.290
89
4.76
113
0.5
Fernery Ozuna
54.0
8.2
3.3
1.2
8.6%
21.0%
.292
88
4.58
113
-0.2
Jake Odorizzi
100.3
7.8
3.2
1.5
8.3%
20.0%
.294
88
4.79
113
0.6
Hever Bueno
40.7
8.9
5.5
1.1
13.3%
21.3%
.301
88
4.70
114
-0.1
Glenn Otto
118.7
8.2
3.8
1.3
9.7%
20.8%
.288
87
4.64
115
0.7
Justin Anderson
32.7
10.5
5.8
1.4
14.1%
25.5%
.293
86
4.84
116
-0.1
Garrett Richards
70.3
7.4
3.6
1.4
8.9%
18.5%
.305
86
4.86
117
0.2
Jake Latz
66.7
8.2
4.6
1.4
11.4%
20.5%
.295
86
4.89
117
0.3
Tyler Thomas
44.7
8.3
4.6
1.2
11.6%
20.6%
.291
85
4.94
118
-0.2
Grant Wolfram
55.3
9.1
5.7
1.3
13.7%
21.9%
.298
85
5.07
118
0.0
Cole Winn
113.0
7.9
5.6
1.1
13.5%
19.1%
.288
84
5.03
119
0.5
Nick Starr
30.0
7.8
4.2
1.5
10.2%
19.0%
.295
84
5.09
119
-0.2
Dallas Keuchel
93.0
6.3
3.9
1.2
9.4%
15.3%
.315
83
4.85
120
0.3
Jack Leiter
94.7
8.4
4.9
1.3
12.3%
20.8%
.287
83
5.12
120
0.3
Drew Strotman
69.3
8.0
5.1
1.0
12.3%
19.6%
.305
84
4.73
120
0.3
Steve Villines
38.0
5.7
3.6
1.4
8.8%
14.1%
.293
82
5.28
122
-0.3
Nick Tropeano
48.0
7.7
5.1
1.3
12.4%
18.9%
.293
81
5.15
123
0.0
Joe Corbett
41.0
8.3
4.2
1.5
10.4%
20.8%
.287
81
5.20
123
-0.4
Noah Bremer
51.7
6.6
3.8
1.6
9.4%
16.3%
.298
79
5.46
126
0.0
Justin Slaten
56.3
8.8
5.3
1.4
12.8%
21.3%
.299
79
5.14
127
0.0
Antoine Kelly
91.7
9.5
7.1
1.1
16.8%
22.6%
.286
78
5.38
129
0.0
Ricky Vanasco
81.3
9.0
6.0
1.5
14.4%
21.6%
.293
77
5.46
129
0.0
Kohei Arihara
73.0
6.2
3.1
1.6
7.8%
15.6%
.294
77
5.37
130
-0.1
Jason Bahr
55.0
7.9
5.7
1.3
13.7%
18.8%
.294
77
5.43
130
-0.1
Greg Holland
34.7
8.6
4.4
2.1
10.8%
20.9%
.281
72
5.81
140
-0.6
Tyree Thompson
18.3
5.9
6.9
1.5
15.9%
13.6%
.276
62
6.59
161
-0.4
Pit Comp 1
Pit Comp 2
Pit Comp 3
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Jacob deGrom
Max Scherzer
Whit Wyatt
Grover Alexander
3.9
2.2
1.78
3.48
Chase Lee
Luis Ayala
Juan Pablo Menchaca
Mark Melancon
1.2
0.1
2.77
4.52
Brett Martin
Jim Faulkner
Luis Quintana
Ron Meridith
1.1
0.2
2.94
4.16
José Leclerc
Evan Meek 에반
Shawn Armstrong
Fernando Rodney
1.2
-0.1
3.09
4.89
Brock Burke
Gary Lucas
Vic Lombardi
Joe Price
1.8
0.3
3.17
4.85
Jon Gray
Jack Sanford
Jeff Samardzija
Bob Feller
2.8
1.1
3.46
4.58
Josh Sborz
Jason Stoffel
Kam Mickolio
Santiago Casilla
0.8
-0.2
3.25
5.08
Lucas Jacobsen
Mike Stanton
John Henry Johnson
Jason Christiansen
0.6
-0.1
3.13
5.23
Marc Church
Tim Peek
Santos Hernandez
Kurt Yacko
0.9
-0.3
3.18
5.13
Martín Pérez
Jose Quintana
Frank Viola
CC Sabathia
3.0
0.9
3.64
4.91
Andrew Heaney
Ray Sadecki
Preacher Roe
Art Nehf
1.9
0.3
3.50
5.12
John King
Steve Prihoda
Judd Johnson
Geno Espineli
0.8
-0.1
3.63
4.80
Spencer Patton
Jim Lindsey
Jason Childers
Gregg Olson
0.5
-0.4
3.49
5.55
Yerry Rodriguez
Raul Sanchez
John Noriega
Jack Morris
1.1
0.1
3.81
5.07
Daniel Robert
Fred Lasher
Adam Jorgenson
Eric Broersma
0.3
-0.3
3.83
5.36
Cody Bradford
Paul Ah Yat
Alex Delgado
Chris Cody
1.9
0.4
3.83
5.14
Nick Snyder
Zech Zinicola
Dave Gerard
Derrick Miramontes
0.5
-0.2
3.72
5.53
Jonathan Hernández
Darryl Scott
Nate Jones
Bob Buhl
1.0
-0.2
3.82
5.27
Joe Barlow
Dave Campbell
Chris Perez
Charlie Hough
0.5
-0.4
3.85
5.45
Owen White
Edgar Ramos
Dave Frost
Mike Slade
1.6
0.3
3.92
5.20
Cole Ragans
Mario Ramos
Pete Schourek
Chris Peters
1.9
0.3
3.93
5.14
Jesus Tinoco
Steve Ridzik
Austin Maddox
Federico Castaneda
0.6
-0.4
4.00
5.42
Zak Kent
Adam Bass
Marcel Guilbault
Brad Meyers
1.5
0.3
4.05
5.22
Matt Moore
Don Ferrarese
Valerio De Los Santos
Rigo Beltran
1.1
-0.5
3.84
5.81
Grant Anderson
Bob Link
Todd Ritchie
Willie Blair
0.4
-0.5
4.00
5.41
Bradford Webb
Chris Johnson
Juan Arias
Jim Mecir
0.8
0.0
4.19
5.35
Dane Dunning
Tim Redding 레딩
Chris Heston
Ryan Drese
1.9
0.1
4.14
5.45
Avery Weems
Eddie Guardado
Paul Oseguera
Paul Lindblad
1.3
-0.1
4.11
5.61
Taylor Hearn
Tyler Alexander
Cody Reed
Roger Bowman
1.3
-0.3
4.06
5.68
Spencer Howard
Jonathan Hurst
Wayland Dean
Jim Austin
1.2
-0.1
4.18
5.50
Ryder Ryan
Bruce Dal Canton
Todd Erdos
Mike Bumstead
0.3
-0.6
4.09
5.64
Tim Brennan
Ruddy Acosta
Greg Holle
Juan Jimenez
0.8
0.1
4.35
5.31
Fernery Ozuna
Bob Link
Justin Pope
Frank Bolick
0.3
-0.6
4.09
5.66
Jake Odorizzi
Saul Rogovin
Sam Gray
Dave Mlicki
1.2
-0.2
4.30
5.83
Hever Bueno
Cody Eppley
Eder Llamas
Jesus Delgado
0.2
-0.6
4.24
5.86
Glenn Otto
Kyle Davies
Jimmy Ring
Dave Freisleben
1.5
-0.2
4.34
5.64
Justin Anderson
Jesse Hickman
Denny Bautista 바티스타
Reggie Harris
0.2
-0.5
3.92
6.23
Garrett Richards
Jose Mercedes
Earl Harrist
Claudio Vargas
0.6
-0.3
4.34
5.99
Jake Latz
Chris Narveson
Don Corella
Rob Henkel
0.8
-0.3
4.38
5.93
Tyler Thomas
Morrie Steevens
David Sanders
Randolph Hopkins
0.1
-0.6
4.29
5.75
Grant Wolfram
Lee Hancock
Casey DeHart
Gregg Langbehn
0.5
-0.5
4.39
5.85
Cole Winn
Blue Moon Odom
Charlie Haeger
Daniel Corcino
1.1
-0.5
4.62
5.86
Nick Starr
Dan Brown
Bucky Buckles
Scooter Cushman
0.0
-0.5
4.44
6.00
Dallas Keuchel
Roberto Ramirez
Clayton Richard
Mark Redman
0.9
-0.3
4.52
5.86
Jack Leiter
Jonathan Hernandez
Anthony Ranaudo 레나도
Justin Haley 헤일리
1.0
-0.4
4.61
5.85
Drew Strotman
Tanyon Sturtze
Dean Freeland
Ike Pettaway
0.7
-0.4
4.30
5.65
Steve Villines
Mark Teutsch
Melvin Mercedes
Jim Hickey
-0.1
-0.5
4.72
5.92
Nick Tropeano
Ron Piche
Jim Wright
Craig McMurtry
0.4
-0.4
4.60
6.18
Joe Corbett
Earl Cash
Chris Squires
Jordan Conley
0.0
-0.7
4.52
6.03
Noah Bremer
Jerry Magness
Eric Boudreaux
James Raynor
0.3
-0.4
4.84
6.09
Justin Slaten
Nick McCully
Wray Bergendahl
Jonathan Joseph
0.4
-0.5
4.76
6.19
Antoine Kelly
Terry Mulholland
Franklin Morales
Drew Hall
0.8
-0.9
4.77
6.36
Ricky Vanasco
Larry McDowell
Hunter Wood
Justin Dunn
0.7
-0.7
4.83
6.34
Kohei Arihara
Jack Fisher
Mike Harkey
Wayne Lundgren
0.3
-0.6
5.03
6.23
Jason Bahr
Nick Pasquale
Ryan Perry
Eduardo Paulino
0.4
-0.7
4.79
6.55
Greg Holland
Stan Bahnsen
Ray Moore
Doug Bair
-0.2
-1.1
4.76
7.99
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.