5 key questions ahead of the 2024 Southern Scuffle

Two weeks ago, some of the nation’s top teams arrived in Nashville, Tennessee for the Collegiate Duals and a showdown between elite talents, and now, another set of strong programs will enter the state with the goal of capture team and individual titles at the 2024 Southern Scuffle.

These are the five biggest questions we have ahead of this year’s event:

What will we see from Nico Provo?

The Stanford star started the year ranked No. 23 at 125 pounds but has propelled himself as high as No. 4 after a championship performance at the 2023 Cliff Keen Invitational, where he beat Trevor Anderson, Brett Ungar, Kysen Terukina, Jore Volk and Matt Ramos on his way to a title in one of the most interesting weights in the country. Since then, though, Provo took a 5-2 loss to Virginia Tech’s Cooper Flynn, dropping him down to No. 11 in the country. He’ll come into the Scuffle as the top seed at the weight in the tournament right now, but he’ll have his fair share of competition.

NCAA Wrestler of the Week

Nico Provo takes the crown after his 125-pound CKLV title following wins over Kysen Terukina, Matt Ramos, Jore Volk and Brett Ungar. He’s rising up the rankings, jumping from No. 20 to No. 4.#NCAAWrestling x @CardWrestling pic.twitter.com/KSizl8hMmS

— NCAA Wrestling (@NCAAWrestling) December 5, 2023

One of the wrestlers most likely to challenge Provo is 2023 Big 12 champion and Round of 12 finisher Stevo Poulin of Northern Colorado who enters the Southern Scuffle ranked No. 18. Poulin is 2-1 on the year in DI matches but 6-1 overall, with his lone loss coming against Jett Strickenberger of West Virginia on Dec. 10. Poulin’s tough and gritty, and he’s someone that could challenge Provo, though Provo did beat Poulin at the Scuffle last year, 10-3, in their lone matchup. Given Provo’s trajectory this year and his current ranking, he’ll be considered the favorite this week, but as we’ve seen all year with 125 pounds, anything can happen.

Two additional ranked athletes to watch at 125 pounds are Chattanooga’s Brayden Palmer and Army’s Ethan Berginc, a sophomore who has already notched 15 matches this year. Neither of these wrestlers has competed against Provo or Poulin yet in their careers, but both qualified for the national tournament last year, with Palmer advancing to the Round of 16. Considering the chaos of this weight, it wouldn’t be shocking to see one of these guys find momentum and notch a few upset wins.

Who will be the next breakout star?

Palmer, in particular, is poised for a breakout tournament.

The senior is 6-0 on the year with wins over national qualifier Nick Babin, Penn State recruit Cael Nasdeo and high school phenom Marcus Blaze. He’s quietly risen to No. 16 in the national rankings, four spots ahead of where Provo was when the Cardinal made his jump. These holiday tournaments have the potential to showcase the next All-American contender — and Palmer is a candidate for that moment.

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Here are a few other athletes who have the potential to make big jumps this weekend:

• Tyler Knox – The Stanford freshman earned his statement win of the year so far at the Cliff Keen Invitational, when he majored Ohio State freshman phenom Nic Bouzakis. Despite that big win, Knox has also taken three losses this year, including a major decision losses against Sam Latona and Domenic Zaacone and a 2-1 loss against Evan Frost. Knox’s wins show that he’s is on the level he needs to at to compete, and if he can pick up another upset win or two while avoiding losses, he could put himself in the podium conversation heading into March. Right now, he sits at No. 17.
• Josh Heindselman – Oklahoma’s Josh Heindselman will come into the Southern Scuffle as the expected top seed in his bracket with his 10-3 record. Making a huge jump in the rankings — like the one Provo made at Cliff Keen — will thus be tough for Heindselman to do without higher ranked guys in his bracket, but if he dominates the likes of No. 27 Josiah Hill, No. 32 Lucas Stoddard and No. 33 Dorian Crosby, he can put some separation between him and the athletes ranked below him. As the No. 15 guy in the country and a Round of 16 finisher last year, Heindselman’s in the mix, and this could be a big moment for him to shine.
• Lorenzo Norman – Stanford has shown that its a program ready to produce big names this year, and Lorenzo Norman has certainly been a big name thus far. The Cardinal freshman made headlines at the Cliff Keen Invitation, where he beat 2021 Stanford NCAA Shane Griffith, who now competes for Michigan at 174 pounds. Norman is 5-3 on the season, but that win over Griffith carries a lot of weight. He’ll come into the tournament ranked No. 22 with his biggest competition at the Scuffle coming against Indiana’s No. 10 Donnell Washington, who is currently undefeated on the year with 85.7% bonus.

Will Little Rock have its first Scuffle champ?

The Little Rock Trojans have been steadily building their strength and depth over the past five year, qualifying their first NCAA tournament athlete in 2021 with Paul Bianchi and securing their first Pac-12 wrestler of the week honor last year with Joseph Bianchi. Neil Erisman coached his team to three Scuffle placewinners, including Triston Wills in third at 174 pounds, Stephen Little in fifth at 197 pounds and Josiah Hill in seventh at heavyweight.

It’s been five years since @CoachErisman began building the Little Rock wrestling team.

See what it took (and what it continues to take) to elevate #LittleRocksTeam into a nationally recognized team in such a short period of time ⬇️ https://t.co/xtdZMS2uHU

— Little Rock Wrestling (@LittleRockWRES) December 22, 2023

Now they’ve got nearly a half a dozen ranked wrestlers in the lineup with several heading to Chattanooga chasing podium finishes.

Leading the squad is No. 8 Nasir Bailey at 133 pounds, a freshman who will come into this week as the likely top seed in his bracket with the chance to make history for his program. Hailing from Park Forest, Illinois, Bailey is 9-1 on the year with his only loss coming against 2023 NCAA champion and world champion Vito Arajau 4-0. Bailey’s ranked wins though, include No. 9 Evan Frost and No. 23 Vince Santaniello. He’ll have four ranked athletes in his bracket, including Knox, Kurt Phipps of Bucknell and Braden Basile of Army, and while Bailey has not wrestled any of them this year, Knox took a 2-1 loss to Frost, an athlete Bailey topped by tech fall in the first period. Knox does have the aforementioned impressive major decision win over Bouzakis, but Bailey’s offensive prowess make him a favorite at this weight and someone likely to challenge for bonus points.

Beyond Bailey, Hill returns at heavyweight looking to finish on the podium for the second year in a row. He’ll begin the tournament as the second highest-ranked athlete in his weight class, behind only Josh Heindselman of Oklahoma, another athlete who has looked focused and fierce so far this year. Hill dropped 5-3 to Heindselman earlier this year, and he’s also taken Ls to Seth Nevills, Yonger Bastida, Dayton Pitzer and Lewis Fernandez, but all of those athletes are ranked and have the potential to pick up wins at NCAAs. Hill’s been tested, and tested recently, as he carries a three-loss streak into the Scuffle, but this is his opportunity to rebound.

Little Rock’s additional returning placer from last year, Stephen Little, is not currently registered for the Scuffle, nor are Matt Bianci at 157 pounds or Tyler Brennan at 174 pounds. The Trojans will instead field Chase Tebbets at 157 and three athletes at 174, including Kodiak Cannedy, Warren Hoy, Austin Keal. There are plenty of reasons to be excited about this Little Rock squad, as the possibility of bringing championship hardware back to Arkansas is real.

What kind of a statement can All-Americans Jaden Abas and Stephen Buchanan make?

This year’s Southern Scuffle won’t be as competitive as the Cliff Keen Invitational, but there are still several big names to know before the tournament kicks off, most notably All-Americans Jaden Abas and Stephen Buchanan.

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Abas, a 2020 Southern Scuffle champion, comes into this year’s tournament ranked No. 10 at 149 pounds after losses to James Latona, Casey Swiderski and Hunter Eveland, the latter of which came by injury default. He’s finished as high as seventh at NCAAs in his career and has a win over 2023 NCAA champion Andrew Alirez, but he has not been on the national podium since his rookie season. If Abas is healthy and wrestling at peak form, he’s someone that could not only win this bracket — one that also includes ranked athletes such as No. 17 Kellyn March, No. 22 Graham Rooks No. 26 Willie McDougald, No. 27 Noah Castillo — but capture some momentum to carry into the Pac-12 dual schedule. Health will be a real concern, as Abas did medically forfeit out of Cliff Keen and has not wrestled since, but his registration for the Scuffle is hopefully a sign that the Cardinal veteran is ready to roll.

Bunch of DAWGGGSS 😮‍💨😮‍💨#GoStanford pic.twitter.com/93o4tFZ5ss

— Stanford Wrestling (@CardWrestling) November 5, 2023

The success of Stanford wrestling this season under new head coach Chris Ayres has been fun to watch, and the Cardinal will have a full team in Chattanooga in addition to Abas with No. 27 Jason Miranda and No. 7 Daniel Cardenas also coming in as the likely top seeds at their 141 and 157 pound weight classes, respectively. Between Provo, Knox, Miranda, Abas, Cardenas, No. 27 Hunter Garvin at 157 pounds, Norman and Nick Stemmet at 197 pounds, this is a group ready to go on a run for a Scuffle team title. The question will be: of these leaders, how many of them can win individual titles, and can Abas make his mark at 149 pounds as part of this process? The 149-pound weight class is more interesting, and Stanford is stronger, when Abas is firing on all cylinders.

Abas’ 149-pound weight class will be one of the deepest of the tournament and includes three more ranked wrestlers than the only other weight class with a returning All-American: 197 pounds. Pacing 197 pounds is Stephan Buchanan, a two-time All-American who is 11-0 on the year and currently ranked No. 2, trailing only behind three-time NCAA champion Aaron Brooks. Buchanan’s only ranked competition this week will be Stanford veteran Nick Stemmet, someone Buchanan pinned in their last meeting in 2021.

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The 197-pound weight class nationally is fun and full of big names like Brooks, Buchanan, Hidlay, Sloan, Elam and more, and Buchanan has done everything possible within his schedule to stand out. His schedule will intensify later in the winter, as he’ll face No. 6 Sloan, No. 20 Wyatt Voelker and No. 26 Julien Broderson before Big 12s, but, right now, he’s in a position to run through his bracket, notch bonus and bring more hardware back to Norman.

Will a national podium contender emerge out of this field of 165 pounders?

The 165-pound weight class has been one of the deepest weights for the last few seasons, and this year, the weight will, once again, include more than one returning national champ. Keegan O’Toole of Missouri has held down the top spot the past two seasons, but 2021 NCAA champion David Carr of Iowa State is right there. Big Ten champion Dean Hamiti is always a threat, as is multiple-time All-American Cameron Amine, Oklahoma State transfer and podium finisher Izzak Olejnik and a whole host of others.

Setup has begun #LetsScuffle pic.twitter.com/KtFejjZIah

— Southern Scuffle (@LetsScuffle) December 30, 2023

For anyone in this Southern Scuffle field, including No. 17 Cael Carlson, No. 26 Noah Mulvaney, No. 27 Hunter Garvin or No. 28 Baylor Fernandes, to break through and truly challenge for a top-eight would be a tall order, but this is a tournament where they could start to build that confidence.

Let’s start with Carlson. The 2022 national qualifier is 8-5 on the year and riding a four-match win streak, all by bonus, after winning the Reno Tournament of Champions. None of those wins, though, came against DI national qualifiers. He does have a quality win this season over Maxx Mayfield, a 2022 NCAA qualifier, but his best career win came last year at this tournament when he beat All-American Wyatt Sheets. Carlson will need more quality wins to raise his profile, ranking and status heading into the postseason, but he’s capable. And what better time than Jan. 1 to jump levels?

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Noah Mulvaney is an interesting factor in this weight, too, as the freshman Bucknell star has an impressive 13-3 record with a win over NCAA qualifier of Josh Ogunsanya of Columbia. He’ll see Ogunsanya again on Feb. 4, one day after potentially wrestling Navy’s No. 19 Andrew Cerniglia. If Mulvaney runs through his bracket at the Scuffle and beats or outplaces Carlson, he could break into the top 20. He’s undoubtedly talented, but, like Carlson, needs an opportunity to earn more ranked wins.

Hunter Garvin and Baylor Fernandes, both of whom sit right behind Mulvaney, come into the Scuffle with 7-5 and 6-2, records respectively. Garvin’s best win came against No. 22 Giano Petrucelli, while Fernandes topped No. 29 Dalton Harkins. These two athletes, along with Mulvaney, will be looking to qualify for their first NCAA tournaments this year before they worry about placing, but their performances against one another could reveal a lot about how they’ve progressed thus far and their point-scoring potential on the national stage down the road.