Breaking down three top-15 college wrestling duals to watch this weekend
The final weekend of collegiate duals for this season is finally here and with that comes one last round of juicy storylines before the postseason begins.
This weekend will feature several ranked teams in action, headlined by three top-15 matchups including No. 8 NC State’s dual with No. 13 Virginia Tech, No. 2 Oklahoma State’s annual battle against the No. 4 Iowa Hawkeyes, and, the grand finale, No. 5 Iowa State vs. No. 7 Missouri. This last dual in particular will spotlight the highly-anticipated matchup at 165 pounds between Missouri’s No. 1 Keegan O’Toole vs. Iowa State’s No. 2 David Carr.
There will be no shortage of action in this final weekend of duals, so here’s what you need to know about these notable events and the biggest names to watch over the next three days.
Friday, Feb. 23, 7 p.m. ET: No. 8 NC State vs. No. 13 Virginia Tech (ACC Network)
The best wrestling rivalry in the ACC comes to Raleigh this Friday night as the No. 8 NC State Wolfpack take on the No. 13 Virginia Tech Hokies.
Star-studded lineups. Electric fanbases. Heroes. Villians. The Favorites. The Underdogs.
This is what 𝗥𝗜𝗩𝗔𝗟𝗥𝗜𝗘𝗦 are made of. 𝗧𝗛𝗜𝗦 is what we 𝗟𝗜𝗩𝗘 𝗙𝗢𝗥.
The Rivalry. Hokies vs Wolfpack.@accsports FRIDAY NIGHT DUALS.#ALLINALLTHETIME #Hokies 🦃 pic.twitter.com/do6lPfVOnI
— Virginia Tech Wrestling (@HokiesWrestling) February 22, 2024
These two teams have held control over the ACC for nearly the last decade, with NC State winning the last five ACC championships but Virginia Tech topping the Wolfpack in the 2023 and 2021 duals. The Hokies last won a conference tournament championship in 2018, but they have a loaded lineup this year and will once against challenge the Pack. This weekend’s dual in particular, like so many other duals between these two teams in the past, will potentially come down to the final match.
Let’s break down the projected matchups:
Both teams have ten ranked wrestlers, with No. 2 Trent Hidlay leading the way for the Pack at 197 pounds and No. 2 Caleb Henson and No. 2 Mekhi Lewis pacing the Hokies at 149 and 174 pounds, respectively. NC State is favored in six weights overall — 133 pounds, 141 pounds, 165 pounds, 184 pounds, 197 pounds and 285 pounds — but several of those are truly coin-flip matches.
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The 133-pound match is a great example of this parity. NC State is expected to field No. 4 Kai Orine, a fierce, gritty All-American, against Virginia Tech’s No. 13 Sam Latona. Orine is 2-1 against Latona, picking up his last win at the NCAA tournament, 3-1. But Latona is one of those wrestlers who is capable of beating anyone. He topped 2023 NCAA champion Vito Arujau last year early in the season, and he’s a two-time All-American himself with career wins over All-Americans Patrick McKee, Michael DeAugustino and Killian Cardinale. If Virginia Tech picks up bonus points at 125 pounds from Cooper Flynn (which is no guarantee considering the wild weight that is 125 pounds), the Hokies could have some momentum heading into 133 pounds that could yield an upset. Orine will be in his home gym though, and the Wolfpack faithful know how to get loud in support of their guys.
At 141 pounds, Virginia Tech’s No. 13 Tom Crook will want to keep things as close as possible with NC State’s No. 4 Ryan Jack to keep the energy high going into 149 pounds where the No. 2 and No. 3 wrestlers in the country will face off against each other. Virginia Tech No. 2 Caleb Henson is 2-0 against his expected foe, No. 3 Jackson Arrington, but Arrington has closed the gap, losing by just two in their last meeting after dropping 6-1 in the first matchup during last year’s dual.
One last time, #WPN 🐺
This season we recorded our first-ever sell-out, then we did it again, BACK-TO-BACK, and it’s all thanks to our amazing fans. What do you say we do it again tomorrow night? #PackMentality pic.twitter.com/pUi1gAjLQt
— NC State Wrestling 🤼♂️ (@PackWrestle) February 22, 2024
Virginia Tech is also favored on paper at 157 pounds with No. 9 Bryce Andonian, though Andonian has been hurt and could be out until the ACC tournament. Rafael Hipolito wrestled in his place in Virginia Tech’s last dual against Pittsburgh and pulled out the 10-2 win over Kellin Laffey, though No. 12 All-American Ed Scott from NC State will be a different kind of test. Scott is 2-4 against Tech’s best, Andonian, but won both of the last meetings.
The Pack have a small advantage at 165 pounds in the match between No. 12 Derek Fields and No. 21 Connor Brady, and they’ll want to secure the W before Virginia Tech rolls out 2019 NCAA champion No. 2 Mekhi Lewis against No. 28 Alex Faison at 174 pounds. Lewis isn’t known for bonus points, but, with the dual on the line, this one could be different. The Hokies will also be counting on Lewis. NC State is favored in the last three weight classes with point-scoring machine No. 2 Trent Hidlay sandwiched in there for the Pack at 197 pounds ready to dominate anyone put in front of him, including No. 26 Andy Smith of Virginia Tech.
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Tech’s ticket to winning this dual is scoring points in the lightweights. The Hokies need wins from Flynn, Henson and Lewis, ideally by bonus. An upset from Latona or Crook would be ideal for Virginia Tech, and if Andonian’s in the mix, they need him pushing for points fearlessly against Scott.
But NC State is going to be defending its house with everything that it has. And this Pack team has a lot (of talent). This is ACC wrestling at its best, and it all starts Friday night in the heart of Raleigh, North Carolina.
Sunday, Feb. 25, 3 p.m. ET: No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 4 Iowa (FS1)
Oklahoma State has had a magical season so far. The Cowboys, who finished 17th at last year’s NCAA tournament, have catapulted themselves into the No. 2 spot in the country following wins over top-ten programs like NC State and Iowa State and an undefeated record overall. Now they’ll face the No. 4 Hawks, a team that has had plenty of bright spots despite dropping two duals and dealing with lineup shuffles
The Cowboy State. Always has been, always will be.#HomeOfWrestling l #GoPokes pic.twitter.com/P0hKTStn2W
— OSU Cowboy Wrestling (@CowboyWrestling) February 20, 2024
Oklahoma is the deeper team on paper with ten ranked wrestlers, but Iowa is favored in more matches. For the Hawks to pull off the win, they’ll need to wrestle to potential — there is no room for error.
Everything starts at 125 pounds. Iowa’s No. 5 Drake Ayala will likely kick things off for the Hawks if he’s healthy while the Cowboys are expected to send out No. 10 Troy Spratley. Ayala, a veteran, has a chance to quiet the home Cowboy crowd with a win, but Spratley is spunky. He comes into this dual on a six-match winning streak, with notable victories over No. 8 Noah Surtin, No. 15 Tanner Jordan and No. 18 Richie Figueroa. And, as we know from this season so far, 125 pounds is unpredictable.
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What is potentially more predictable is Daton Fix putting on a show. The senior will have his sendoff moment on Sunday afternoon as he competes against either Iowa’s Cullan Schriever or Brody Teske in his final home match of his college career. Fix is 12-0 on the year with 75% bonus. He’ll want bonus here, so look for him to not only put up points but try to end the match early.
Following Fix, Iowa will be favored at 141, 149 and 157 pounds with No. 2 Real Woods, No. 8 Caleb Rathjen and No. 5 Jared Franek. Woods has the chance to pick up a big top-10 win over No. 8 Tagen Jamison, but, as Michigan’s Sergio Lemley proved earlier this year, Woods is not invincible. Jaimson’s tough, and Iowa should not overlook this match. 149 and 157 will also likely be narrow-margin matches with Rathjen — who jumped ranking spots after his big win over Tyler Kasak of Penn State — wrestling a tough No. 15 Jordan Williams and Franek preparing to compete against a scrappy Teague Travis.
They’re not having us in to have a good duel. #Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/bn9cIX2rY1
— Iowa Hawkeye Wrestling (@Hawks_Wrestling) February 21, 2024
These three weights are three weights where Oklahoma State has seen more productivity than perhaps the wrestling community expected, but all three of these young Cowboys will be tested against top-10 Hawks in must-win matches.
The fun doesn’t stop in the upper weights. If the dual starts at 125 pounds, No. 3 Izzak Olejnik of Oklahoma State and No. 7 Michael Caliendo, two All-American transfers, will kick off the second half of the dual. The edge here, obviously, belongs to Olejnik, but Caliendo showed that he can keep pace with some of the best in the weight during his high-scoring match against Hamiti. While Caliendo did lose that bout, he did still put up 11 points against the Badger All-American. The result of this match could have notable NCAA tournament seeding implications given the depth of 165 pounds, nationally.
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Outside of Olejnik, Oklahoma State will also be favored at 184 pounds with No. 2 Dustin Plott taking on either Aiden Riggins or Gabe Arnold, Iowa’s only unranked athletes. Arnold can wrestle this bout and still preserve his redshirt, so it might be worth Iowa sticking him out there. If he beats Plott, he should be the guy for the postseason, even though Arnold said earlier this year that he’s too small for 184 pounds. Plott’s a title contender. On Sunday, we could find out if Arnold is too.
NCAA Wrestler of the Week
Gabe Arnold beat All-American No. 11 Travis Wittlake in his first dual as a true freshman for the Hawks.#NCAAWrestling x @Hawks_Wrestling pic.twitter.com/oum8rZDBrL
— NCAA Wrestling (@NCAAWrestling) November 21, 2023
The third and final Cowboy with the advantage on paper over Iowa is Konner Doucet, a No. 9-ranked heavyweight who could wrestle Ben Kueter or Bradley Hill. Iowa will want to have a lead going into heavyweight, regardless of who the Hawks send out for this bout, so Iowa will be looking at No. 7 Patrick Kennedy and No. 11 Zach Glazier at 174 and 197 pounds respectively to put up points against their ranked opponents and secure the dual for Iowa.
The Hawks have won the last three duals against Oklahoma State, but the last time the Cowboys picked up the W was in the same venue in which they’ll host the Hawks on Sunday — historic Gallagher-Iba Arena. Oklahoma State will need some upsets to make a win happen, but such a result is entirely within the realm of possibility given the lineups of these two historic programs.
Sunday, Feb. 25, 3 p.m. ET: No. 5 Iowa State vs. No. 7 Missouri (ESPN+)
Iowa State vs. Missouri in Hilton Coliseum is a wrestling fan’s dream, especially this season. This is the dual where we’ll finally get the big moment — Iowa State senior and 2021 NCAA champion David Carr vs. Missouri’s No. 1 and two-time NCAA champion Keegan O’Toole. Carr beat O’Toole in this dual last year and pinned the Tiger to claim his fourth Big 12 title in 2023. O’Toole then got revenge at the NCAA tournament to win his second national title. Now Carr gets another shot, on his home turf, in front of his home fans. It’s the ultimate wrestling showdown.
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Carr vs. O’Toole isn’t the only mega-match in this dual though. Heavyweight will also feature a top-5 battle as No. 5 Zach Elam takes on No. 3 Yonger Bastida. Iowa State’s Bastida has been unreal this year, posting an undefeated record in his new weight class with wins over All-Americans Lucas Davison and Cohlton Schultz. Elam, though, is also undefeated. He also has top-10 wins too, though he has not wrestled any previous podium finishers so far this season. Unlike 165 pounds, Iowa State has the edge on paper in this one, but expect both matches to be high-pace, high-intensity and decided by just a few points.
The rest of the dual, per current rankings, is split right down the middle. Missouri will want to come out with aggression at 125 pounds and earn big points from No. 8 Noah Surtin, while Iowa State has the chance for an equalizer at 133 pounds in No. 7 Evan Frost. If the Cyclones can get the energy rolling, they could go on a run with No. 9 Anthony Echemendia and No. 6 Casey Swiderski at 141 and 149 potentially picking up top-25 wins.
Just us. #MIZ🐯 #TigerStyle pic.twitter.com/us6LljCk6x
— Mizzou Wrestling (@MizzouWrestling) February 21, 2024
The 157-pound match is one with great intrigue. Iowa State will be expected to field freshman Cody Chittum against Missouri’s All-American Brock Mauller in a match between two tough, forceful middleweights. Mauller is ranked higher, but Chittum is hungry. He nearly knocked off No. 5 Jared Franek of Iowa earlier this year, and he has the potential to compete for a national title. Mauller is defensive enough to stop Chittum’s attacks, and he’ll come with the momentum, as Chittum is fresh off a loss to Northern Iowa’s Ryder Downey, but this is still anybody’s match.
Out of the three remaining weights — 174, 184 and 197 — Missouri is favored in two. The Tigers have No. 10 Peyton Mocco at 174 pounds against Iowa State’s No. 19 MJ Gaitan in a match that Mocco should win but Gaitan, as sneaky as he is, could be dangerously competitive; the Tigers also field No. 8 Rocky Elam against Julien Broderson for a upperweight bout where Missouri will want bonus. If Iowa State drops 174 pounds, and even worse for the Cyclones, gives up bonus, they’ll be looking for big productivity from transfer All-American No. 8 Will Feldkamp, as he takes on No. 14 Clayton Whiting at 184 pounds. Every single guy will be a contributor in this dual because the team score will likely come down to bonus points.
The only thing that would make this dual more dramatic? If Iowa State head coach Kevin Dresser and Missouri head coach Brian Smith started the dual at 174 pounds and ended with the premier match at 165 pounds to decide the team winner.
