Cavan Biggio, 2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

Here’s what I said previously, “Cavan Biggio will be promoted today to join Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Soon, Bichette will join Guerrero and Biggio and the Jays’ master plan to reunite the 2005 All-Star Game in the luxury boxes will be complete.  “How’s Darin Erstad Jr. look?” “More like Darin Ersatz!” “I don’t get it.” “Ersatz means an inferior substitute.”  “Is that some thinking man’s humor? I don’t like that.” That was overheard in the Jays’ front office. Here’s what Prospect Mike said about Biggio this preseason, ‘At 23, Biggio had a solid 2018 campaign at Double-A. He hit .252 with 26 homers, 20 steals, and a walk rate of nearly 18%. He has the pedigree and patience to make it in the pros and the power to hit 20-25 homers, but he also strikes out a lot and I’m not sure what position he’ll end up at. This could mean he ultimately finds a role as a super-utility type like a Swiss Army knife. Speaking of which, anyone know where Grey is, I want to harvest his liver.’ Hey, c’mon! This year, Biggio cut down on his Ks, and held his walks, hitting .306 in Triple-A, while adding in his usual mix of power and speed.” And that’s me quoting me and quoting Prospect Mike! It’s all super accurate information, so digest it. Digest my milkshake, as a not-100%-accurate foreign translation of There Will Be Blood would say. Digest it up! So, what can we expect from Cavan Biggio in 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Last year, Cavan Biggio went 16/14/.238 in 354 ABs. First off, that average is concerning or nah? Nah nah, as in nah, it’s not. Quadruple negatives be damned! He had a 28.6% strikeout rate, which is high, but this is standard stuff for a prospect to be called up and get eaten alive at first. To grab one super random name, Kris Bryant had a 30-plus strikeout rate in his first season. It’s been about 23% since. Biggio’s .309 BABIP last year was a bit low for his speed (28.3 sprint speed). Also, his 12.4% soft contact would’ve been bottom 25 in the majors if he qualified, i.e., he hits the ball harder than most. As you can imagine, there’s not a ton of guys who hit the ball hard who are also anchored with a low BABIP. Evan Longoria (but he’s flat-footed) and Khris Davis, who hits fly balls, which brings us to a small concern for Biggio. He’s got a top ten launch angle, which means he hits a ton of fly balls. That’s not great. That’s going to limit his BABIP, batting average and damage he can do with his speed. He’s eighth for fly ball percentage, right with Gary Sanchez and Rougned Odor — bonus points for me mentioning Rougned Odor in a sleeper post for the tenth year in a row. So, Biggio’s batting average will be better, but doubtful it’s a positive attribute. The launch angle and fly balls mean he will hit his share of homers. He hit 26 homers in 2018 in Double-A, and 22 homers between Triple-A and majors last year. He’ll only be 25 at the start of 2020 and the power is increasing. He averaged 225 feet on his fly balls last year, which was the 2nd best for a launch angle in the top ten, only coming in 2nd to Mike Trout. Who? I have no idea, but I heard he’s good. Biggio could hit 30 homers easily, but feels like a lock for 24-plus. Finally, his speed. It does not blow — “What’s that?” Nothing, Ron Washington. — Biggio was only caught stealing once in 20 tries in 2019 (5/6 in AAA, 14/14 in MLB), and will be in a place where opportunities for steals will be in abundance, because, honestly, what else are the Jays doing? They’re at least two years away, so they’ll give their young players lots of at-bats and opportunities to prove themselves on the basepaths. Not getting caught will only enhance Biggio’s chances — enchances? — which is great for us. For 2020, I’ll give Cavan Biggio projections of 71/25/78/.246/20 in 571 ABs with a chance for more.

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