Given the emphatic outcome of their rematch, it’s hardly surprising to see Tyson Fury open as a considerable betting favorite over Deontay Wilder for their planned third fight.
Yet as was the case in their recent sequel, the betting action continues to trend in one direction.
On the heels of Alabama’s Wilder (42-1-1, 41KOs) exercising a contract clause to enforce a third fight with his longtime heavyweight rival, England’s Fury (30-0-1, 21KOs) currently sits as a -200 betting favorite (place a $200 bet to win back another $100) to retain the lineal heavyweight championship status he reclaimed following a one-sided 7th round stoppage in their rematch this past February at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.
Wilder was the pre-fight betting favorite for their first fight, with the pair of behemoths fighting to a disputed 12-round draw in their December 2018 title fight in Los Angeles. Most viewers felt the decision should have landed in favor of Fury despite having suffered two late round knockdowns, that sense reflected in the opening odds which saw Fury as a -130 favorite (bet $130 to win back another $100) and Wilder at +110 (bet $100 to win back another $110).
By opening bell for the rematch, Wilder had been bet up to a -140 favorite according to Vegas sportsbooks. A reported 80% of the action was on Wilder to make the 11th successful defense of his World Boxing Council (WBC) title. It never came close to happening, as the American heavyweight was dropped twice and had only won a single round on one card at the time the fight was mercifully halted in the 7th round.
Despite the one-sided nature of the rematch, bettors still find value in Wilder reclaiming his throne. The most generous odds against him have the 34-year at +275 to regain his title, with betting aggregate website Oddschecker.com placing a 26.67% probability of that outcome taking place, although 58% of bettors are literally banking on an upset according to collected data within the past 48 hours.
Opening lines on Fury range from -200 to as high as -400, naturally with the most favorable action on the low end. While the brash Brit has won an overwhelming majority of their 19 rounds of action, just 39% of the early betting action envisions a repeat performance for part three.
“There has been plenty of talk in the days since the fight that Deontay Wilder would choose not to exercise the rematch option – but any doubts have been put to bed,” Pete Watt, spokesperson for Oddchecker told BoxingScene.com. “Many people seem to have temporarily forgotten the kind of career and self-belief that Wilder possesses, and he will firmly believe that he can upset the odds and reclaim the belts that he held for over five years.”
Those who look for a repeat of the first fight instead of the sequel can get odds a +2500 for a draw—with 3% of the betting action heading in that direction as this goes to publish.
Jake Donovan is a senior writer for BoxingScene.com. Twitter: @JakeNDaBox