In the hot, steamy sweat of August, while the summer was bumping its uglies against us without our permission, Gavin Lux looked like the best player since Sliced Bread. You might remember, Sliced Bread was a Triple-A standout, hitting .350 with 34 homers in 78 games, but never caught on in the majors, and is now a third base coach for the Winnipeg Sweater Puppies. Sliced Bread is a cautionary stale, er, tale, and Lux doesn’t need to go that route. Looking at Lux in the cold dankness of the offseason, he doesn’t look as hump-worthy and more like a pump and dump scheme. What were we thinking then and can we start thinking it again? I.e., make me delusional again about Gavin Lux I want to put my heels under my head and go whee. Anyway, what can we expect from Gavin Lux in 2020 fantasy baseball?
First, let’s look at why I loved Gavin Lux all the way back into last season, i.e., about a month ago. He almost hit .400 in Triple-A with 13 homers and three steals in 49 games. It was in the PCL, the league where they displace juice in the balls for helium, and his .451 BABIP is a skosh high. Still, a 14.2% walk rate and 18.1% strikeout rate in Triple-A should translate to better plate discipline. Dot dot dot. Eventually. Lux was exploited — 29.3% K-rate and .240 average — last year in his cup of coffee. In that cup of coffee he received a saucer of milk when he was supposed to cream the ball? Damn, Star-Lux sexpresso ended up looking like a Flat White. I know, black coffee matters, Wakanda forever and Americano exceptionalism, but I need more than “the usual” or a tall with grande dreams. Not saying Lux will be like a Starbucks bathroom where you find a plaid shirt with what you hope isn’t human waste. Maybe I should get out of this coffee shop while I’m writing. Check out what some jerk barista did to me:
Would’ve preferred the barista just called me a clown pic.twitter.com/7PjuV7p7pt
— Razzball (@Razzball) October 18, 2019
I was absolutely owned! Any hoo! While Lux could start the year with the Dodgers, does he have an everyday job? The Dodgers look like they will promote him to start the year in the majors, but Joc Pederson has been trying to get a starting job for five years while he continues to platoon. I’m pretty much convinced if Corey Seager didn’t have a great rookie year, he’d be in a platoon. Dodgers are flush with options and it makes everyday playing time a bit of a challenge. Usually this wouldn’t matter, but Lux is the type to need runs and RBIs to boost his value and, if he’s out of the lineup, he’s losing opportunities. Funny that I mention Corey Seager (total coincidence!) because Lux reminds me a bit of him. Seager wasn’t quite as good as Lux in Triple-A, but it’s a different game, or rather, “Let the Kids Play Loud With A Juiced Ball.” Another portion of this blanket that is soaking with wetness, Alex Verdugo was supposed to be great in 2019. Again, not as good as Lux, but Verdugo was pretty forgettable. From what I can tell, Lux’s best case scenario is Corey Seager’s great rookie year, which was awesome — 26/3/.308 — with more speed. That’s nothing to sneeze at, unless you’re allergic to valuable shortstops. Realistically, though, I’d give Gavin Lux projections of 54/17/51/.271/10 in 403 ABs.