Injuries, control issues, and velocity make for quite an interesting analysis.
Baseball is constantly changing. Look at it from a pitching vantage point and it may be changing even more. New strategies are popping up. Relievers are pitching more than ever. Velocity has a steady, significant increase throughout time.
These never-ending changes put a different perception on relievers. They’re changing too! For example, the percentage of batters faced that ended the plate appearance in a strikeout or walk in 1960 was 24 percent. In 2018, it was 32.5 percent. This has been an ongoing trend throughout the history of modern baseball and for the most part, there’s no ending in site.
And while non-contact plate appearances have became more of a familiar site in today’s game, there’s one reliever that takes it to a whole other level. Giants reliever Ray Black, a 28-year-old right-handed flamethrower has gone through every level of baseball going face-to-face with strikeouts and walks. Going back to his college days, two seasons at the University of Pittsburgh, he had a whopping 11.05 ERA in 36.2 innings, striking out 48 and walking 41. But even with those numbers, he was still drafted in the seventh round of the 2011 MLB Draft, mostly thanks to a fastball that sit in the upper-90s.
Heading into professional baseball, Black was a project prospect and nothing more. This grew truer when he had to sit out his first two professional seasons, recovering from his second Tommy John Surgery. He debuted with the Giants Low-A affiliate in 2014, posting promising results (50.8 K%, 3.73 ERA, 1.45 FIP). And then in High-A in 2015 (45.5 K%, 2.88 ERA, 3.74 FIP). Then came Double-A in 2016, where he appeared in 35 games, circling around three 7-Day DL stints before he finally landed on the 60-Day. He then followed up with three total appearances in 2017, all rehab appearances at the Rookie level.
Black returned to pitching on a more consistent basis last season, starting out by dominating in 10 Double-A outings (52.6 K%, 0.90 ERA, 0.53 FIP), moving up to 26 more of them in Triple-A (46.9 K%, 3.16 ERA, 2.11 FIP), before finally making his major league debut with the Giants in July.
One major, and I mean major, caveat I haven’t focused on yet is his control issues. Among relievers with at least 20 innings this year, Black ranked in the bottom third in walk-rate. But with an 80-grade fastball that sits 98 and can touch 104 and a wipeout slider, he makes up for this by being impossible to hit. Black induced a .202 opponents batting average this year through way of soft-contact. His fastball generated one of the lower exit velocities in all of the majors last season.
The combination of velocity and spin on his fastball was essentially unmatched.
To add onto that, he throws an 85 MPH slider that had the second highest spin rate in all of baseball this past season. Hitters slashed .143/.280/.286 off the pitch this year with a 35.3 percent strikeout-rate.
This slider he used to strikeout Matt Chapman here should almost be illegal.
Projections-wise, things are looking up for Black next season. It seems likely he’ll have himself a spot in the Giants bullpen, and perhaps a big one. Per Steamer Projections, only nine relievers are projected to post a lower FIP than Black. Only six pitchers are projected for a higher K/9 (Kimbrel, Hader, Betances, Chapman, Diaz, Knebel).
Out of all the players in baseball, relievers by far present the highest volatility. That volatility becomes higher when you have a history of injuries and not being able to throw the ball the ball over home plate. But this is what makes Black entertaining. It’s what makes him baseball’s most polarizing reliever.