Written for nbl.com.au by Tom Hersz
It’s the Holiday season and that means only one thing – more time for us to catch all the incredible NBL19 action with friends and family.
Last round was no exception as Brisbane came from behind against Perth, Adelaide held on against Cairns, Melbourne slowed down Sydney and then Illawarra stunned the ‘Cats.
The Holidays are a time to reflect, to refocus and to set new goals. Some teams will be doing more reflection than others right now, while others will be solely thinking about achieving their season-long goal of a championship.
I did my own reflection after Round 10 of NBL Fantasy and it was caused by my Captain choice. I took my own advice and chose Nick Kay over Andrew Bogut, and well, let’s just say it’s one I’d like to do-over.
The logic was sound, but there were a few assumptions in there that proved unfounded. Bogut didn’t rest any more than normal against Cairns as the game was closer than expected, while Nick Kay was very quiet against the Hawks which I didn’t see coming.
The moral of course is not to overthink things. When looking for points of difference, make sure you’re not risking too much.
So if you’re looking for some low-risk upgrades to your team, then the Fantasy Fix is here to help you refocus ahead of the New Year.
Round 11 (Dec 26 – Dec 31)
2 Games: Adelaide, Brisbane
1 Game: Cairns, Illawarra, Melbourne, New Zealand, Perth, Sydney
A lighter fixture this week and one that is spread out too, with no games between Boxing Day and Saturday Night, ahead of a New Year’s Eve double header!
Adelaide has its first double since round 7 and Brisbane’s hot form coincides beautifully with two straight doubles. On the flipside, Perth’s run of doubles is in the rear-view mirror and you can probably trade all Wildcats players out, while adding Taipans is a solid play ahead of their run home.
How are your finances looking? Hopefully better than your wallets after all that Christmas shopping. Let’s take a look at the top 10 price risers and price fallers after Round 10;
- Shawn Long: +$100,000 ($1.51m)
- Lamar Patterson: +$100,000 ($1.36m)
- David Barlow: +$100,000 ($1.21m)
- Matt Hodgson: +$100,000 ($1.16m)
- Mika Vukona: +$100,000 ($0.832m)
- Jarrad Weeks: +$100,000 ($0.825m)
- Tai Wesley: +$98,000 ($1.69m)
- Jordair Jett: +$89,000 ($1.27m)
- Armani Moore: +$77,000 ($0.702m)
- Andrew Bogut: +$68,000 ($2.20m)
- Jeremy Kendle: – $100,000 ($0.803m)
- Greg Hire: -$91,000 ($0.551m)
- DJ Newbill: -$89,000 ($1.15m)
- Jesse Wagstaff: – $87,000 ($0.444m)
- Bryce Cotton: – $84,000 ($1.37m)
- Nick Kay: -$79,000 ($1.87m)
- Josh Boone: -$75,000 ($1.37m)
- Adam Gibson: -$70,000 ($0.693m)
- Rhys Vague: -$64,000 ($0.331m)
- Clint Steindl: -$63,000 ($0.616m)
After a massive game against the Hawks, it’s no surprise Shaw Long tops the list of price risers this week. He’s joined by others including Lamar Patterson and David Barlow; both instrumental in their team’s wins in Round 10.
In a scary proposition for anyone who was waiting until Round 12 to bring him in, Andrew Bogut snuck back onto that top 10 list of price risers and is back up to $2.2 million.
The list of those who cost us money this week is dominated by no less than six Perth Wildcats. It was a rough week for Trevor Gleeson’s men and the timing hurts with a lot of people likely trading out Cotton and Kay.
Jeremy Kendle had a minimal impact again and his price dropped, which makes you wonder if Brisbane has another move up their sleeves still.
Before the clock strikes 2019, it’s time to set a new goal to put up a monster score as we look at the top trade targets for Round 11.
Daniel Johnson, PF/C, ADL ($1.47m): It seems like a long time since we’ve talked about DJ for fantasy purposes, but that’s mostly because Adelaide’s schedule has not been fantasy friendly. Well that’s changed while his play has not. Johnson has the second highest fantasy point average of any power forward in the league, making him a great trade option if you’re moving along from Nick Kay.
Nathan Sobey, PG/SG, ADL ($1.33m): It was a down week for Sobes but he still managed to rack up a solid, if not spectacular fantasy score. Over his past 3 games, he’s averaging 41 fantasy points and with a double in five of the next seven rounds, it’s a great time to bet on Sobes bouncing back at either guard spot.
— NBL (@NBL) December 22, 2018
Jacob Wiley, SF/PF, ADL ($1.20m): Wiley’s play has been a little inconsistent this season, but his best is electrifying. Even if he’s not scoring, he’s attacking the boards and that equals fantasy points, so his floor is pretty solid week to week. Wiley typically steps up in big moments, so expect him to thrive on Boxing Day against the defending champs.
Cam Gliddon, SG/SF, BRI ($1.22m): I know we call him ‘Clutch’ Gliddon, but we should also call him ‘Consistent’ Gliddon. He’s averaging 35 fantasy points over his past 3 games, 33.8 over his past 5, and 37.3 on the season. With doubles this round and next, if you’re team could use some certainty, with a little dose of clutch, then Gliddon is a great option.
Lamar Patterson, SG/SF, BRI ($1.36m): I’ve really said enough about Patterson. He is an all-court talent who is averaging just shy of 50 fantasy points over his past 5 games. If you haven’t traded him in yet, this is the time. Do not wait any longer.
— NBL (@NBL) December 21, 2018
Cameron Bairstow, PF/C, BRI ($1.00m): As a basketball fan, it’s actually exciting to see the incremental improvement of Bairstow week to week. He’s finding more and more ways to impact a game and it’s coming at exactly the right time for the Bullets and your fantasy team. Bair’s averaged 32.8 fantasy points over his past four games and that number is slowly trending up. Enjoy the ride.
Melo Trimble, PG, CNS ($1.36m): In terms of not overthinking things, Trimble has just gotten it done for fantasy owners all year. He continues that and with Cairns’ run of 5 straight doubles starting next week, he’s about as sure a thing as you can have right now.
Nate Jawai, C, CNS ($1.11m): Like Bairstow, Nate Jawai has also been working his way back to top basketball shape this season and it’s paying dividends right now. The big fella shook off an underwhelming game against Sydney to put up a strong line as they nearly knocked off Adelaide. 34.3 fantasy points over his past four games cannot be ignored.
Shawn Long, PF/C, NZL ($1.51m): You want big scores? Well then go Long! Shawn Long’s last two games have seen him produce 70 and 74 fantasy points. That’s big! And with the Breakers having doubles in 6 of the final 7 rounds of the season, this is a great opportunity to get your man before his price jumps even further.
“If he stays in the game he’s probably the best big in the league.” – @NZBreakers head coach Kevin Braswell ?
— NBL (@NBL) December 24, 2018
Jarrad Weeks, PG/SG, NZL ($0.825m): Weeks’ signing was lauded in the offseason as a great backup to Shea Ili and Corey Webster, but right now he’s the best of that bunch. His last 5 games have yielded 29.4 fantasy points, while that number has jumped to 32.7 over his past 3 games. At well under a million dollars, that is incredible value.
Tai Wesley, PF/C, NZL ($1.69m): We all know what the grown man can do, but it’s the way he’s doing it lately that’s been most impressive. It’s his defensive numbers that have really jumped off the page, with 9 blocks over his past two games to go along with 4 steals. Wesley is averaging 55.3 fantasy points over his past 3 contests and went for a season-high 60 in Round 9. He’s not cheap, but as a trade option if you’re moving on from Kay he makes a lot of sense right now.
Others to consider:
Harry Froling, PF, ADL ($0.863m): The front runner for Rookie of the Year honours, Froling continues to make strong contributions each game and has averaged 26 fantasy points over his past 5 games, making him a solid bench option.
Jerome Randle, PG, SYD ($1.14m): When his assist totals rise, so does his score, even if his shot isn’t falling. That seems to be happening with more regularity lately than it was earlier in the season, so give him a look down the stretch as a cheaper PG option.
The options switch up this week and despite my confession in the introduction about Bogut, with the Kings on a single, we’re forced to look elsewhere. Here are my top 4 Captain choices for Round 11;
- Lamar Patterson, SG/SF, BRI
- Daniel Johnson, PF/C, ADL
- Nathan Sobey, PG/SG, ADL
- Cam Gliddon, SG/SF, BRI
With the New Year approaching, it’s a great time to assess what’s been working and what hasn’t. Make some resolutions to stop overthinking and go with the most solid choices. I know I will.
Wishing everyone a very Merry Christmas and a New Year filled with fat box scores and oodles of Fantasy Points!