Written for nbl.com.au by Tom Hersz
You’d be forgiven for rubbing your eyes when checking the results from Round 12, because you probably didn’t believe them.
It was a bizarre week in NBL19 with five of the six games being won by the lower ranked team on the NBL Ladder.
And as strange as that was, the strangest part was how the round started. Not the fact that Cairns finally won a game – they were due – but it was how they won that caught everyone’s attention.
When you haven’t won since the opening round, you’re not expected to blow out any team by 29 points, let alone a top four team, but that’s exactly what Mike Kelly’s men did.
In the midst of all of those upsets we saw some big bodies step up to help their teams win. Shawn Long and Tai Wesley for New Zealand, Nate Jawai with the Taipans, and of course Andrew Bogut who showed his team remains the Kings of the standings.
And when the dust settled, we were left with 7 teams still vying for playoff spots. Just when we thought we had it figured out, huh?
So if you thought your fantasy team was out of the running in your league, it’s not too late to make a run. Get your Fantasy Fix and find some players to help your team step up and grab some attention of your own.
Round 13 (Jan 10 – Jan 13)
2 Games: Adelaide, Cairns, Illawarra, Sydney
1 Game: Brisbane, Melbourne, New Zealand, Perth
There’s another healthy dose of games on tap for your fantasy enjoyment this round as once again four teams have doubles.
Adelaide starts a string of three straight, Cairns continues their hearty schedule with some extra confidence, the Hawks have doubles in four of the next five, while the Kings do likewise.
Melbourne has two more singles before finishing the season strong, Brisbane has a two-week hiatus from doubles so you can look at trading out Lamar Patterson, and Perth fans will need to wait one more week to start enjoying a double dose of Cotton and Kay.
The good news is with all of those big scores in Round 12, your fantasy budget should have grown. Let’s check in on the top 10 price risers and fallers after the Round;
- Andrew Bogut: +$100,000 ($2.40m)
- Shawn Long: +$100,000 ($1.71m)
- Nathan Sobey: +$100,000 ($1.53m)
- Brian Conklin: +$100,000 ($1.03m)
- Armani Moore: +$97,000 ($0.840m)
- Jason Cadee: +$91,000 ($1.08m)
- Tai Wesley: +$83,000 ($1.79m)
- Ramone Moore: +$79,000 ($1.19m)
- Damian Martin: +$72,000 ($1.06m)
- Lamar Patterson: +$68,000 ($1.53m)
- Nick Kay: – $100,000 ($1.73m)
- Jacob Wiley: -$100,000 ($1.10m)
- Thomas Abercrombie: -$100,000 ($1.02m)
- Cam Gliddon: – $99,000 ($1.08m)
- Todd Blanchfield: -$98,000 ($1.05m)
- Jeremy Kendle: – $94,000 ($0.609m)
- Dane Pineau: -$74,000 ($0.373m)
- Jordair Jett: -$70,000 ($1.16m)
- Daniel Kickert: -$67,000 ($0.736m)
- Anthony Drmic: -$63,000 ($0.867m)
So much for Bogut’s price peaking last month. He’s back to his max increase ways and the $2.4million price tag is now the largest we’ve ever seen since this current NBL Fantasy format started last season.
And if you cannot fathom dropping that kind of money on one player, well there’s another big man trying to catch him. Shawn Long also rose by the max again and is now the fourth most expensive player in the game behind Bogut, his teammate Tai Wesley and Nick Kay.
Nathan Sobey’s rise also continues with his purple patch the past few weeks. He’s now the most expensive PG eligible player in the game and tied with Lamar Patterson as the priciest guards.
Speaking of Nick Kay, his price fell by the max after season-low 26 fantasy points in Perth’s loss to New Zealand, while Jacob Wiley and Thomas Abercrombie also provided fantasy players with a max discount ahead of Round 13.
But that just means there is good buying out there, so let’s take a look at some of the best trade targets for Round 13.
Daniel Johnson, PF/C, ADL ($1.41m): This is the cheapest we’ve seen DJ for a while and it’s the perfect time to bring him in with the Sixers about the start a run of three straight doubles. The man just passed 4,000 career points and if you’re looking to trade out one of Long, Wesley or even someone like Matt Hodgson, Johnson is a great option this week. Play him at PF or 6th man next to Bogut and watch the points roll in.
Nathan Sobey, PG/SG, ADL ($1.53m): It’s no secret he’s in season-best form right now. What you may not know is that he’s now got the highest fantasy average of any guard in the league. Higher than Trimble, higher than Ware, higher than Patterson, Cotton and Kennedy too. And with the Sixers battling for a top four spot, he’s not going to let up any time soon either.
Harry Froling, PF, ADL ($0.802m): There’s something to be said for the way Joey Wright develops young talent. From Creek to Sobey to Deng, he finds a way to accelerate their productivity and the latest protégé is Harry Froling. The multi-skilled big man has played a key reserve role this year backing up Daniel Johnson and has certainly made his mark. He’s averaged 24.5 fantasy points over his past two and is playing with a lot of confidence right now making him a good value reserve option at the PF spot.
— NBL (@NBL) January 4, 2019
Devon Hall, SG/SF, CNS ($1.10m): Isn’t it fun watching someone shoot fireballs? That’s what Hall did against Brisbane last Thursday as he connected on 6-8 from deep and 8-10 overall on his way to a season and game-high 24 points. Not content to just score he grabbed 5 boards and dished out 6 assists as well. In total, he racked up a whopping 62 fantasy points in that one and then added another 20 on Monday night to average 41 fantasy points across the round. And with four straight doubles coming up, it’s a great time to step into the Hall.
Nate Jawai, C, CNS ($1.16m): The campaign has shifted from ‘Make’ to ‘Keep’ Nate great again after his dominant work in Round 12. Jawai delivered 18 points and 4 assists in the win over Brisbane; then went toe to toe with Bogut to the tune of 16 points, 9 rebounds and a career-high 7 assists. Like Hall, he also averaged 41 fantasy points over the round and is a viable alternative to Johnson as your 6th man or back-up Centre behind Bogut.
DJ Newbill, SG/SF, CNS ($1.09m): Well we finally reached the bottom and Newbill’s price has started to climb back up. Rising $25k this week, he had a very handy 78 fantasy points across the round, rewarding those who’ve stuck with him or took a chance on a turnaround. It’s time to let this DJ spin some more fantasy points for your squad.
— NBL (@NBL) January 7, 2019
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Brian Conklin, PF, ILL ($1.03m): In Bevo’s 300th, King Conk rewarded his coach’s faith in him with his best game of the season. A double-double with 17 points, 12 rebounds and 3 assists for good measure saw Conklin deliver a season-high 61 fantasy points and if he’s going to start producing lines like that with any regularity, he’ll quickly reward all of us. Have some of your own faith in this double round for the Hawks.
Shawn Long, PF/C, NZL ($1.71m): You cannot put up a combined 61 points, 26 rebounds and 4 blocks across the round and not earn a mention in this column, especially when you’re the high scorer for the round with 147 total fantasy points. Even without a double this week, Long needs to either be in your team or in your plans for next week when the Breakers start their run of five straight doubles to end the season. If the fouls are really no longer an issue, then he’s a must-own.
Long has been ? in Round 12.
— NBL (@NBL) January 6, 2019
Tai Wesley, PF/C, NZL ($1.79m): Of course if you can only choose one Breakers big man, Wesley is probably the more consistent of the two. He’s a little more expensive and his average is now slightly lower, but his fluctuations are less obvious and his fantasy point floor is probably slightly higher. Horses for courses at this stage, but Wesley gets his in a greater variety of ways.
Andrew Bogut, C, SYD ($2.40m): You’re not trading him in now if you don’t have him already, but I thought it a little remiss of me to not mention this guy at least once a month in this column, so let me just point out exactly how dominant he’s been. He’s averaging 65 fantasy points per game on the season, but has upped that to 75.2 over his past 5 contests and 77.7 over his past 3. He’s scored more than twice the fantasy points of any other Sydney player this season. He’s scored 220 more fantasy points than second best (Nick Kay) who has played one more game than Bogut. He’s only scored under 40 fantasy points twice this season. He’s scored above 70 fantasy points on 8 occasions. He’s double-doubled (bonus 10 points) in 6 of his past 8 games. His price has risen by a combined $901,000 this season. And finally, he’s still got doubles in four of the last six rounds. Enjoy!
— NBL (@NBL) January 7, 2019
Others to consider:
Jacob Wiley, SF/PF, ADL ($1.10m): A disappointing 1 fantasy point in Round 12, it’s usually pretty safe to say the only way is up about Wiley, but that’s especially true this week. With dual-position eligibility and three straight doubles, he’s now great value after this week’s price drop.
Armani Moore, SF/PF, NZL ($0.840m): Another dual position forward, Moore is coming off his most consistent round of the season. He had 31 and 35 fantasy points, so if he can start a run of solid games, he becomes a nice cheap buy going forward with the Breakers’ upcoming schedule.
The list may be shorter but the choice is still easy this week. As long as Bogut has a double, you keep the Captain tag locked on him. In case you have traded him out, there are a few other options. Here are my top 4 Captain choices for Round 13 in order;
- Andrew Bogut, C, SYD
- Nathan Sobey, PG/SG, ADL
- Daniel Johnson, PF/C, ADL
- Melo Trimble, PG, CNS
It’s not too late to make your run, but you need to start nailing it every week from here on out. Keep maximise those consistent producers and plan ahead for those final few double rounds leading into the Fantasy Finals. Good luck!