There are no #MACtion games on Friday night, and for that, I’m thankful. Over the last few years, I’ve looked forward to MAC games on weeknights. They’ve been a terrific opportunity to profit. Simply taking the Under in any MAC game on a weeknight was nearly a lock, but that appears to be changing.
This season there have been eight MAC games played on weeknights. The Wnder has gone 2-6, and more than overall performance, it’s been the manner in which those Wnders died.
We’ve seen Ball State and Western Michigan score 28 points in the fourth quarter to go Over the total. Miami (OH) and Ohio combined for 24 fourth-quarter points to push the total Over. Northern Illinois and Toledo scored 21 points in the first half of their game, only to combine for 38 points in the second half. Western Michigan and Ohio scored 10 points in the first half of their game. They then scored 52 in the second half and went to overtime where they tacked on nine more.
It’s been soul-crushing. It’s left me wondering if the glory days of #MACtion Unders are over (get it?). There are two weeks left of it this season, and I’ll be standing by, shovel ready to bury them once and for all if need be.
All lines for tonight’s non-#MACtion games are via William Hill.
1. Louisiana Tech at Marshall: Marshall -6.5
This line opened with Marshall as a 2.5-point favorite, and I thought it stunk then. Louisiana Tech should have been favored in my mind, but I held off on it. Then I watched as the line kept moving in Marshall’s direction, and alarm bells went off. Well, somebody knew something because, on Thursday, it was announced that Louisiana Tech would be without starting quarterback J’Mar Smith, leading receiver Adrian Hardy and safety James Jackson. The trio has been suspended, and that makes it hard to trust in the Bulldogs on the road here. I won’t be shocked if this line grows even larger before kick tonight. If you can find Marshall at -7 or better, take it. If it gets to -7.5 or larger, I’m not nearly as enthusiastic
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2. Fresno State at San Diego State: Fresno State +1
This is another line that’s been crazy all week. San Diego State opened as a two-point favorite, but that line swung Fresno’s way for a while, as the Bulldogs were a one-point favorite as recently as Wednesday. Now it’s moved back to the Aztecs, and I’m just fine with that. My metrics hate San Diego State with a passion. The Aztecs are good defensively, but the offense is a mess. That makes this a team that’s hard to trust as a favorite. The fact that Fresno State is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 conference games, as well as 5-1 ATS in its previous six Friday games, doesn’t hurt my confidence here, either. Nor does the fact that San Diego State is 18-27-3 ATS when favored at home under current coach Rocky Long.
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3. Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors: Under 225
All the losses that Golden State has suffered this year have impacted its defense more than anything else. The Warriors enter this contest as the worst team in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Surprisingly, they’ve still been about average on offense. I think that defense is putting this total a bit too high, however. I like Boston to cover the spread as well, but the total is the more attractive play.
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