Before I get to my picks for tonight, I feel the need to complain about the beat I took on Tuesday night. You see, I took Under 63.5 in Ohio versus Western Michigan. The score of the game was 3-0 after the first quarter. In fact, it was 3-0 until near halftime.
When Western Michigan scored a touchdown with eight seconds remaining in the first half, I didn’t think much of it. I mean, when the total is 63.5, a 10-0 halftime score is a thing of beauty.
But then the second half began. The two teams combined for three touchdowns in the third quarter to make it a 17-14 game. Still, I had breathing room. They were still 32.5 points below the total after scoring 31 points in the first three quarters.
Then the fourth quarter began. The two teams combined for 31 points, which left the total at 62, but there was one problem. When Ohio scored with nine seconds left in the game, it left the score tied 31-31. That meant overtime. That meant death to my under.
While reading tonight’s picks, please keep me in your thoughts. All odds are via William Hill.
1. Bowling Green at Miami (Ohio): Miami -17
This is a tricky spot. Miami hasn’t been as good as its record suggests, and regression is likely to come at some point. I assume that’s what a lot of bettors believe as this spread has shrunk from 18.5 points to 17. I’m fine with that, because Miami is a much better team than Bowling Green, even if it isn’t as good as its record suggests.
Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games and 12-2 ATS in its last 14 MAC games. Bowling Green is 0-4 ATS in their last four road games, as well as 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a winning record. The Redhawks should win this game comfortably.
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2. Northern Illinois at Toledo: Under 54.5
It is going to be a cold, windy night in Toledo on Wednesday. As I write this, the forecast is calling for temperatures in the mid-20s and winds of 11 mph blowing across the field. In other words, it’s going to be miserable. Still, while the players can deal with the cold, it’s harder to deal with wind. It affects the passing game as well as the kicking game and has long been a friend of any Under bettor. If you’re smart, you’ll be one of them tonight. If you need added incentive, each of the last seven meetings between these teams has finished below the total.
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3. San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves: Spurs +1.5
These are two evenly-matched teams, so even that if it’s only 1.5 points, they’re valuable points. Minnesota hasn’t been great at home this season, and even going back to last year, the Wolves are only 1-3-1 ATS in their last five at home. Of course, the Spurs haven’t exactly been great themselves against the spread. They’re only 2-8 in their last 10 overall. What I’m relying on here, however, is that the Spurs have always performed well against Minnesota. San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in the last five against Minnesota, as well as 7-2 ATS the last nine times the game was played in Minneapolis.
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