Top 20 Starters for 2020 Fantasy Baseball

The royal we already went over all the hitters for 2020 fantasy baseball rankings. That’s not the “royal we” as that term usually implies. It was me writing it alone while wearing a Burger King crown. I refuse to draft a top starter where they are usually drafted. Unlike hitters, you need six starters, depending on your league depth. Simple math tells us there’s plenty of starters to go around. Simple Math also says, “Stop putting words in my mouth!”  Simple Math has an attitude problem. Simple Math says, “Try counting on your fingers without me!” Yo, eff you, Simple Math! In most leagues, there’s a ton of pitchers on waivers that can help you — all year.  Not just in April. With the help of the Stream-o-Nator, you can get by with, say, three starters while streaming the rest. (By the by, Razzball Subscriptions are now open. Early subscribers get Rudy’s War Room.) There’s also the fact that three stats by starters are difficult to predict due to luck. Wins, ERA and WHIP are prone to change, depending on which way the ball bounces and whether or not the guys behind the pitchers can score runs. Finally, the best starters can give you four categories. The best hitters can give you five categories. So, here’s Steamer’s 2020 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2020 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers. As always, where I see tiers starting and stopping are included with my projections. Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2020 fantasy baseball:

1. Gerrit Cole – Went over him in the top 20 for 2020 fantasy baseball.

2. Jacob deGrom – This tier goes from here until Bieber. I call this first tier, “Let’s be very, very, VERY, very, vewy, berry, berry clear.” And when I say let’s be very, very, VERY, very, vewy, berry, berry clear, I’m talking about being very, very, VERY, very, vewy, berry, berry clear and not just saying let’s be very, very, VERY, very, vewy, berry, berry clear while only being slightly very, very, VERY, very, vewy, berry, berry clear or being very, very, VERY, very, vewy, berry, berry clear in name only. If these guys were to fall in drafts to where I’m willing to draft a starter, I will draft any and/or all of them. It’s not about them as much as it’s about their draft slot. Sure, I have actual problems with guys like, say, Scherzer, which I will get to, but if he fell to the 50s in a draft? Sure, at that point, you have to draft him, because I would be drafting a starter and he’d be above other guys. (Thank you for not laughing too loud when I said Scherzer at pick 50.) For unstints, I always draft a starter around 50th overall (give or take ten picks), so if I’m in a draft with eleven other Greys and we’re sitting there discussing boba and the Maxo Kream album and just general BS’ing, and all of us forget to draft a starter, I’d draft Gerrit Cole at 50th overall, then deGrom, etc. So, this is a ranking of my starters, it’s just unrealistic for me to say I’m actually drafting these guys. They’ll be gone before I’m willing to draft a starter. Yes, I love the pitchers in this tier. They are great. There, I said it. But I will never own them. Last year if you owned Jack Flaherty, Shane Bieber, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Chris Paddack and Tyler Glasnow, you would’ve walked away with your league’s pitching categories and not drafted any top starters. Am I cherrypicking? Yes, just like you could’ve cherrypicked last year’s pitchers based on my suggestions! You could’ve had Ryu, Paddack, Glasnow, Odorizzi, and Giolito and not drafted one starter before 175 overall. I love top pitchers, but you do not need them. In some leagues, you could do fine NOT drafting ANY starters. Yes, I brought out the caps. I’m not only talking about H2H leagues where you can carry only relievers. I’m talking 10 or 12-team roto leagues where you can stream starters. Maybe you own one starter and stream five spots. Maybe you own two guys and stream four spots. Maybe you drink seven cups of coffee and stream all day. Even if you want to draft an entire rotation and hold them (or try to), you don’t need a guy from this tier. There’s plenty of options later to fill out your rotation so you’re competitive in leagues where you can’t stream. I’m not suggesting you Reggie Roby starters. I’m telling you to Reggie Roby top starters. Concentrate on your hitting while these guys are being drafted. Hope that was very, very, VERY, very, vewy, berry, berry clear.  As for deGrom, he’s great, but just had a funny thought that is only partially related. People (I’m one; you might be too) are talking confidently about deGrom’s Hall of Fame chances if he were to retire tomorrow, and I agree. DeGrom is at worst headed for a Hall of Fame career, at best already a lock. He could retire in five years and get into the Hall (he’s already 31 years old, so in five years isn’t crazy). If he were to retire in the landmark case of sooner vs. later, he would be a Hall of Fame starter who didn’t even break 100 wins. Ha! He has 66 wins in 1100 career innings. Good stuff, Mets! 2020 Projections: 15-5/2.58/0.96/264 in 209 IP

3. Justin Verlander – I considered ranking Verlander much lower just to see if I could get Kate Upton mad at me. She becomes radioactive Grrrnobyl and it is so hot. When defending Verlander, she gets madder than when you bring up AOC with your Republican relatives. “Where does this Alexandria Casio-Quartz get the nerve?” That was my uncle getting heated. RIP. When handing out some awe, you gotta give it to Verlander’s recent magnificence. His last two year strikeout rates: 12.2 and 12.1. I’m sorry, are you makin’ provolone and sellin’ it from home, because you got cheese. 2020 Projections: 17-7/2.66/0.98/271 in 205 IP

4. Jack Flaherty – Before we talk about Flaherty’s 2nd half, here’s something I seriously don’t understand. Every year I tell you who to draft after the top 10 or so starters are off the board. Literally, every year. Yet, every year in the preseason, people don’t trust me to find them pitcher bargains later in the draft and choose to draft a top ten starter. I told you to draft Flaherty last year. This year you can’t afford him. It’s fine, there will be a “Flaherty by a different name” this year, just like there will be a “Bieber by a different name” and others. I owned Buehler, Bieber, Flaherty, Clevinger and Strasburg in multiple leagues last year. You think I just got lucky? Seriously? That’s silly. Also, there’s ‘perts out there who suggest you draft a top ten starter, so how do they explain that seven of the ten top starters change every year? They think last year was special? It wasn’t. It’s like this every year. I know, last year I said to draft German Marquez and he hurt me too, but a ton of people told you to draft Snell too, and he was more expensive and just as crippling! It’s better to get screwed by your 1st starter when you draft him higher? How does this make any sense? It was better to be screwed by Chris Sale than German Marquez? Please explain it to me. Any hoo! Flaherty had a 0.91 ERA in 99 1/3 IP last 2nd half. His K% went up to 11.2, and walk rate down to 2.1. If you think those numbers sound good, but not quite equating a 0.91 ERA, you’re right. His .206 BABIP would’ve been the best BABIP in baseball last year. Still, his 2nd half 2.22 FIP would’ve been best too, and there’s a strong case to be made Flaherty is the 2nd best starter, and easily the 4th. Also, I go over him in the video at the top of the page. 2020 Projections: 16-5/2.69/0.99/241 in 202 IP

5. Shane Bieber – Wrote a sleeper post for him last year and told everyone to draft him. Last year was the year to own him. Don’t worry there will be Biebers to own this year, they just won’t have the name Bieber. Ooh, ooh, I’m sorry, yeah. Okay, now I’m just singing Bieber. Bieber’s a gorge specimen of exactly what you want in every starter — high Ks, low walks — except for his ADP. He’s great, wonderful, adjective, but we can’t own him. 2020 Projections: 16-7/2.81/1.01/248 in 204 IP

6. Max Scherzer – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Snell.  I call this tier, “Hot grandmas in your area.” Some spam emails are just too good to not open. A subject line like, “Hot grandmas in your area” is just impossible to not open, but you want to resist. I know, it’s hard! See an email subject line, “Tired of NOT owning a monkey?” And you want to click it so bad. Or an email subject line, “For $5.00 a week you can feed a hungry child, or slap the food out of the hands of a fat one;” it’s so hard to resist! I know! I want to click through to, but you shouldn’t. Same with these pitchers, you want to get in on them, but you have to resist. (Unless they fall far enough as discussed in deGrom’s blurb.) As for Scherzer, he was the 11th best starter last year, according to the Player Rater. That was after being essentially useless for the entire 2nd half. His 1st half with 129 1/3IP, 2.30 ERA and 181 Ks powered him to nearly a top 10 starter year. I could infer from that that (stutterer!) pitching is a mess. Could also infer that Scherzer had a 1st half that was about as good as Max Fried’s entire year. That’s Fried, who was the 28th best starter overall last year. If you drafted only Scherzer and Fried, you’d Maximize your fantasy team. Thank you, please tip your waitresses, they don’t have healthcare. Speaking of healthcare, I don’t fully trust Max’s back. That sentence works as “Max’s back” or “Max is back.” Nifty, huh? 2020 Projections: 14-6/2.83/1.02/251 in 179 IP

7. Walker Buehler – Have much love for Buehler, so don’t take this the wrong way, but the Dodgers have shown next to no inclination at throwing anyone 200+ IP. Not saying it can’t happen. Just because Rich Hill could never throw 200 IP doesn’t mean Buehler can’t, and Dodgers’ rotation is shallower this year than it has been in the past, but to think Buehler would suddenly throw many more innings than 200 feels silly. At best it feels like he will come up just short or just over 200. Why does this matter? All of the starters so far have 240+ Ks and for Buehler to come close to that he’s going to need at least 210 IP. Plus, less IP means likely less Wins, and less effect his ERA will have on your team’s stats. For full disclosure purposes — or porpoises if dolphins have already taken over the world by the time you read this — I nearly started the 2nd tier at Buehler over Scherzer, due to health. Six of one, half dozen of another, and like I’ve said so many times, if guys are in the same tier, they’re all interchangeable like Edward James Olmos and his stuntman, Edward James Almost. 2020 Projections: 16-7/2.91/1.03/234 in 198 IP

8. Mike Clevinger – Not only are these hot grandmas in your area that you definitely want to check out because they are smoking (mostly Bensons & Hedges), but they’re also guys who I’m just a little bit concerned about. So, it goes without saying that I’m not drafting these starters, after saying that about fifteen times in the last eight blurbs, because I also have concerns, not just because of how high they’re being drafted. Clevinger missed time last year, due to his back. While he returned looking like an absolute King, ruling over a fiefdom with a lights-out curfew every time he threw his 95 MPH fastball and goodnight-god bless 80 MPH slider, he still needs to stay healthy for 200 IP. Easier said than done, as the diploma reads from your speech therapist. 2020 Projections: 14-6/2.97/1.04/236 in 191 IP

9. Stephen Strasburg – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Re-signed with the Nats. If you jumped out of a DeLorean and told me you were from the future, I’d say, “Please tell me actionable future information that will help me make money and don’t simply tell me Strasburg is going to throw another 200 IP,” then you’d throw a peace sign in the air and drive off. If you were there to tell me the 200 IP tidbit about Strasburg, I’d be annoyed but would feel more confident about Strasburg being a top five starter, and not more like a top ten starter. It was five years ago when Strasburg last threw 200 IP, after accomplishing it last year. If he’s going to throw 200 IP every five years, wake me in 2025. I’ll be sleeping in my Cybertruck down by the new beach resort town of Juneau, Alaska.” And that’s me quoting me! 2020 Projections: 15-5/3.03/1.03/225 in 192 IP

10. Blake Snell – As someone who minored in Saberhagenmetrics at the Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston, I love the narrative that Snell’s terrible 2019 is going to help him finish top three in Cy Young voting in 2020. To me, that narrative paints a better picture than Bob Ross painting a happy, little Baby Yoda. Sadly, I’m a serious-minded person and I hear Blake Snell had loose bodies removed from his elbow and I think of David Caruso putting police tape around Snell’s arm. Love the discount this year if I felt like a rebound was definitely coming, but gonna take a pass for fear CSI: Snell’s Elbow returns for a 2nd season. 2020 Projections: 14-6/3.12/1.09/214 in 174 IP

11. Lucas Giolito – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Paddack. I call this tier, “Fill my holes with dry rice to reduce moistness.” I imagine by now you are moist for starters. Well, before you fill your holes with dry rice to reduce moistness, I have a special treat for you:  You can begin to draft starters. See, that wasn’t too long, was it? Great, I didn’t think so either, and I could tell you were overflowing with moistness, so I’m happy to tell you starters are now available. But you might want to chew on a sanitary napkin or rub deodrant on your forehead, because it might actually be longer before you can draft a starter. Here’s the thing, and, yes, there’s always a thing. I will absolutely draft someone in this tier, but I won’t reach for them. If they make it to around 50 overall, or under $30, then I’d happily draft one to reduce my moistness, and remove the dry rice from my holes. See, I don’t punt all starters, just the very top ones. Just don’t reach for one of these guys. As for Giolito, this year Giolito reminds me of Clevinger and Buehler last year. For whatever reason, after a guy breaks out, there’s people who don’t trust them fully. The projections systems don’t even trust Giolito — putting him down for 4.27 ERA (down from 3.41 ERA) and 1.27 WHIP (down from 1.06). Why though? Or as millennials would say, y tho? Guys need time to find the right mix to use in the majors. Sometimes this takes longer than you’d want. Giolito took three years. So? Jake Arrieta took five years before pounding multiple Cy Young-type seasons; Cliff Lee needed six seasons; Kershaw needed one season. Not everyone is Kershaw. Last year Giolito dropped his curve usage and nearly doubled his changeup. His changeup became the 5th best change in baseball and his curve, which wasn’t great, stopped hurting him. A change, mind you, that is coupled with the 5th best fastball. Only one pitcher in the top 5 for fastballs has a pitch as good as Giolito’s change — Flaherty’s slider. Cole’s slider is not even as good. Oh, and Giolito’s slider at 2 runs above average (his third positive pitch!) is better than Flaherty and Cole’s other pitches. But, wait, there’s more! Giolito’s SwStr% was 6th best — the top five are Cole, Scherzer, Verlander, Castillo and deGrom. Oh…*climbs to the top of a 10,000-foot beanstalk*…kay. Giolito has the 2nd lowest contact made on pitches in the zone. Only one better is Cole. We have to move on before I orgasm, so I just want to wrap this up for those of you slow on the uptake. Giolito cumulatively has three pitches better than Flaherty and Cole, then, when hitters are swinging at actual strikes, they are missing more than anyone, except Cole. If you can draft Giolito this late, and currently you can, do it immediately. 2020 Projections: 15-6/3.27/1.05/243 in 197 IP

12. Patrick Corbin – He has ERAs of 3.15 and 3.25 in the last two years with 200 IP in each, and a 10.6 K/9 or better. Happily drafting that as my first starter. Since it feels like it needs to be said, he is younger than Strasburg and Scherzer. So, he feels old, but he’s not offering kids hard candies or shopping at Suburban Outfitters. He’s just been doing this (and well) for a while. Last year, his chase rate went down a hair, which led to an uptick in his walks. He still had the 7th best Swinging Strike rate and his chase rate was better than Cole and Scherzer, who were one and two on SwStr%. Corbin is elite; he’s just not often thought of that way. You don’t need to roll in cat litter to reduce your moistness, you can draft Corbin. 2020 Projections: 15-7/3.36/1.09/242 in 203 IP

13. Luis Castillo – This post is going on 55,000 words, so I need to be more succinct, which is helped by me starting this blurb in this manner–Anyhoo! Castillo needs to roll his newfound K/9 into his previous year walk rate, and he will be a top starter, easily. Everything here is butter on the “Reds are gonna be good this year” toast. Extra velocity, top 4 SwStr%, the best in the major leagues for Contact% and fifth best for contact in the zone. These are insane numbers. To put it to you nice and simple as if explaining it to you like you were a Hee Haw cast member, hitters are swinging at his strikes and haven’t a friggin’ chance. Let me just grab a pitcher who is considered great by some. Syndergaard has a 75.1% Contact%, Castillo’s is 65.9. Hitters are making contact almost ten percent less of the time on Castillo’s pitches. I’m sorry, since you are so butter, would you mind if I microwaved you so I can dip my lobster meat into you? C’mon, don’t be *pinkie to mouth* shellfish. 2020 Projections: 16-8/3.32/1.09/237 in 196 IP

14. Chris Paddack – I just screamed out loud, “Goddamn it, I love pitchers!” I do, men and five womans. They are just so fun. When they’re good, at least. They are also so predictable for strikeouts. (Hitters are predictable for power and speed.) When you see a guy like Paddack, you just have to exclaim. I insist on it. When sorted by 140 IP, he had the best F-Strike%, and an expected batting average of .217, and a 9.8 K/9. What do you deduce from that? Forget it, I’ll tell you. He throws a ton of strikes, gets ahead of everyone, and hitters know strikes are coming, but still can’t hit him. He had the 12th best fastball and 14th best changeup. Expected batting average on those two pitches was under .200. There were only two pitchers with an expected batting average for all their pitches under .200 (Verlander, Cole). Paddack’s curve was his only less than supreme pitch. Oh, and it was still 43rd best in the majors. This tier is ridiculous with wonderful, like accidentally googling Mama June nudes and your Google safe-search saves you. Chef’s kiss! 2020 Projections: 12-6/3.03/0.96/196 in 174 IP

15.  Yu Darvish – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Nola. I call this tier, “Eat your ideal lover’s weight in cookie dough.” The tier name is a self-help tip. Much like any pizza can be a personal pan pizza with some dedication. Or wait until midnight on Valentine’s Day, go to Wal-Mart and buy 50% off candy so you can gorge yourself. Another self-tip for a person is drafting a starting pitcher. So, stop reading, Who Moved My String Cheese, get off your butt and draft a starter! Now! As for Darvish, I don’t think people understand how good his 2nd half was. It wasn’t good for last year or him; it was good in the historical context of baseball. He had 118 Ks in 81 2/3 IP and seven walks in the 2nd half. That’s 13 K/9 and 0.77 BB/9. He doesn’t pitch every day, because he has to wait five days after registering his cutter with local authorities. Last year I kept saying if he could be as bad as he was in the 1st half, why couldn’t he be that bad again in 2020? Well, 2019 Grey, you are a crank! I’m here to tell you even if he’s as bad as he was in the 1st half, he was still a pitcher with 229 Ks and a 1.10 WHIP. I’m all about self-care, reading Rich Dad, Poor Dad and drafting Yu. 2020 Projections: 14-6/3.41/1.09/231 in 182 IP

16. Luis Severino – If you know anything about my drafting of starters, you know I am risk averse. This tier doesn’t feel as risk averse as I’d like to be. *shrugs* Pitching is a bit of a mess, if you’ve been in a cave studying the difference between stalagmites and stalactites for the last year. (We really need one name for ones on the ceiling and one on the ground? C’mon, English language!) After returning from a shoulder injury (lowercase yay!), Severino’s velocity dipped like a stalactite and his value was grounded like a stalagmite. (You want these words? Then I’ll use them!) Here’s a blurb from ESPN right after the injury last March that made me laugh (the reporting by these guys is hella something), “The defining piece of Severino’s evaluation was an MRI that revealed rotator cuff inflammation. Of the types of injuries a pitcher could receive to his rotator cuff, inflammation might be the most favorable. Had the MRI revealed a strain or a tear, Severino could be facing a much steeper climb to getting back on the mound. Tears, after all, have effectively ended some pitchers’ careers.” That’s from before the season and Severino didn’t return until the last week of September. Glad it wasn’t bad, huh? If you think I’m cherrypicking, later in that article they said he’d be back by May 1st. Of course, he later had a lat issue, but, c’mon, we all know it was a shoulder problem. His velocity then was down when he finally did return from 97.6 to 96.1 MPH. That sounds like a negative, but that’s actually why I’m still drafting him. 96 MPH is still plenty hard enough. Break off a 85 MPH slider or 88 MPH change with that fastball and Severino is a 10+ K/9 still. The only question is if he can throw 175+ IP, and, with the state of pitching, I’m taking the risk the Yankees don’t need Chance Adams for their rotation and Patch Adams for Severino.  2020 Projections: 14-6/3.24/1.04/201 in 172 IP

17. Charlie Morton – My pitching this year is going to be a lot of guys I’ve never owned before. I’m still dealing with that emotionally — we’re gonna be all right, fam! I’m trust-falling into this tier, hoping Morton catches my dopey ass. Okay, let’s be honest, trust-falling is for your meetings at EST with Philip Jennings. I’m cold-hard on dem facts. Morton’s exit velocity went down, his fatsball velocity, while down, was still 94.4 MPH and elicited a .217 batting average, while his curve, which he threw 1172 times turned out a .151 batting average. He has five pitches, and needs two. He gets so many strikeouts (11.1 K/9) and ground balls (48.2%) his .340 xSLG was 6th lowest in the league. I know, it makes no sense to trust a 36-year-old, but, if you wanna be an ageist, start casting Hollywood films. If you wanna draft a fantasy baseball team, grab Morton. 2020 Projections: 15-7/3.36/1.10/231 in 191 IP

18. Sonny Gray – True story alert! I ranked my starters, then went to look at ADP (so I wouldn’t be unduly influenced) and saw Sonny Gray about 15 spots after this. Then I saw my reflection and I had to stop for fifteen minutes as I was mesmerized by my hair. How does it stay so full and luscious! So, appizzarently, I’m back in on my son in a big way. Welcome back to my good graces, boy! Please don’t disappoint me again by being bad and/or dropping out of pre-med and becoming a fantasy baseball blogger. Wait, I’m thinking of my own father’s disappointment. Daddy, give me love! I screamed that shaking my fists. Okay, let’s go with this Gray breakdown before Grey breaks down. In 175 1/3 IP, he had 10.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 3.42 FIP. Gonna go with 3.42 FIP and tell you that was 12th best in majors last year. Better than Corbin, Flaherty, Giolito, Castillo, Kershaw…Okay, a lot of guys! His 50.8% ground ball rate was 8th best, and above him in these rankings for ground balls was only Strasburg and Castillo. That’s it. His 29% K% was 14th in the league. If you’re more of a results guy, he has five of six seasons with an ERA of 3.55 or under and four of those years the ERA was below 3.10. He had a terrible 2018, but that was the Yankees messing with him and he was just off from the jump. There’s absolutely no reason why he should be drafted any lower than 20th best starter, at worst. 2020 Projections: 14-6/3.27/1.10/217 in 197 IP

19. Aaron Nola – We have a tough one here to project. Drilled down on him for so long I was about to sing the Dentist song from Little Shop of Horrors. Here’s the problem, his walks went up. Why, is the big question. The one thing that really jumps out is he failed to get ahead on hitters. His first strike percentage went from 69.4% to 62.3%. That makes me think his fastball wasn’t working. Well, his BAA on the fastball went from .216 in 2018 to .269 last year, but his whiff% was better last year. So…*puzzled look* I don’t know. I Googled “Nola tipping pitches” and I found a tipping chart for how many beads to give for different breast sizes. I might’ve spelled pitches with a B. If anyone has any theories, I’m all ears like Alfred E. Neuman. My guess is Nola just wasn’t locating, which explains why his walk rate went way up. Nola has long been a walk-free zone, especially in the French Quarter after 2 AM. So, if you draft him, you’re betting his control will be as it was every year in his career prior to last year. That feels like a decent bet. If he struggles again this year, then I suggest the world’s oldest re-gifting and giving Nola back to France. 2020 Projections: 15-7/3.51/1.07/234 in 211 IP

20. Chris Sale – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until top 40 starters for 2020 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Using your own streaming password.” There’s a ton of subscription services now, huh? Apple, Netflix, MLB, HBO, Showtime, History — you don’t watch Top Shot or Vikings? Shame on you! — PBS for that Downton binge; Hulu for some DiscoveryID true crime crap; some app that only has BBC shows, wait, that might be BBC…Okay, there’s a ton of streaming services! I have a password from a brother-in-law, father-in-law, three different friends and a password I just found on Reddit. If you use only your own passwords, you’re a sucker. If you draft from this tier, you’re also a sucker. Tee bee aitch, I’m giving you a tier now that I won’t own partially because I like to mix it up, and partially because I’m finding it very difficult to find great starters. As for Sale, people I see drafting Chris Sale A) Didn’t own him last year B) Owned him last year and are looking for payback. C) There’s no C. D) Owned him last year and their mothers were right when they said you are a self-sabtoger. E) Didn’t own him last year but are self-sabotagers and want to get in on the action of self-harm. F) me. G)rey Albright says H)I). His velocity dropped by 1.5 MPH and he’ll be 31 to start the season. Maybe he can halt the decline and bounce back, but 95 MPH to 92-93 MPH makes a huge difference and the injury stints are becoming routine, and, just in this past December, Dr. James Andrews was checking his elbow. Now if Dr. James Andrews wants a new, smaller hot tub to go inside his much bigger hot tub, Sale will be done. 2020 Projections: 12-4/3.35/1.06/214 in 154 IP

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