Troy vs. South Alabama odds, line: 2019 College football picks, predictions from dialed-in model on 80-51 run

The Jaguars hope history is on their side when South Alabama visits Veterans Memorial Stadium to take on the Troy Trojans on Wednesday night. The home team has lost the past four in the Sun Belt Conference series, and the Jaguars pulled a 19-8 upset the last time they visited Troy. The Jaguars also can take confidence from the fact that the road team is 6-1 against the spread in the past seven meetings. South Alabama had a week off to reflect on a 20-17 overtime loss to Georgia Southern to drop to 1-5, while Troy fell to 2-3 with a 42-10 loss to Missouri before its bye. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET. The Trojans are 17-point favorites in the latest Troy vs. South Alabama odds, up sharply from an open of 14.5. The Over-Under opened at 54.5, but has since risen a point. Before making any South Alabama vs. Troy picks, look at the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen huge returns. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $4,200 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread.

The model enters Week 8 of the 2019 season on a strong run, going 80-51 on its top-rated college football picks. It also called Texas (+11) staying within the spread against Oklahoma and Alabama (-17) covering against Texas A&M in two of the biggest games last week. Anybody who has been following it is way up.

Now, it has simulated Troy vs. South Alabama 10,000 times. We can tell you the model is leaning under, and it’s also generated an extremely strong against the spread pick that cashes in 60 percent of simulations. That one is only available at SportsLine.

The model knows the Trojans could have to turn to quarterback Gunnar Watson with starter Kaleb Barker (1,476 yards, 14 TDs) questionable, but Watson will have plenty of help. Troy has an abundance of talent at receiver, with six players who have more than 10 receptions, led by junior Kaylon Geiger (30-410-2). Junior Reggie Todd has 17 catches for 283 yards and a TD, while junior Khalil McClain has five touchdowns on 18 receptions. Todd also has returned a punt for a touchdown. 

Sophomore linebacker Carlton Martial is the leader on defense, with 50 tackles, 1.5 sacks and an interception. Troy only has three interceptions this season, but that could change on Wednesday, as Jaguars quarterback Cephus Johnson has thrown five.

But just because the Trojans have a high-powered offense doesn’t mean they will cover the Troy vs. South Alabama spread.

South Alabama running back Tra Minter has 477 yards rushing and 156 receiving this season, while Jared Wilson has 153 yards on 37 carries. The Jaguars have big-play ability, as Kawaan Baker had a 75-yard touchdown and Jalen Tolbert had one of 60 yards in the loss to Georgia Southern. Quarterback Cephus Johnson has thrown for 708 yards and five touchdowns and added 199 rushing yards.

Safeties DJ Daniels, who has 43 tackles, and Keith Gallmon, with 27 tackles, an interception and a forced fumble, make plays in the secondary. Cornerback Devin Rockette has two of the team’s four fumble recoveries, while sophomore linebacker Nick Mobley has 55 tackles and a sack. the Jaguars are 4-0 against the spread in their last four conference games. 

So who wins South Alabama vs. Troy? And which side of the spread is hitting 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the South Alabama vs. Troy spread to back on Wednesday, all from the advanced model on an 80-51 run on college football picks.

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