Two Start Pitchers, Week 26: Last Week Of The Season, Can’t Hold Anything Back Now

  • Last week of the regular season. Playoff teams may decide to adjust or sit their starters as they lock up their position and start getting ready for the playoffs. Did my best to recognize the 2 starters as best I could here.
  • There’s still some questions about who will start, but the situations I couldn’t nail down were:
  • Oakland and San Diego are likely running a 6 man rotation.
  • Cincinnati may run a 6 man rotation, but have to monitor that situation.

 

No Doubt

Name Team Opp 1 Opp 2 PR ERA 2nd Half FIP 2nd Half K/9 2nd Half BB/9 2nd Half BABIP 2nd Half
Gerrit Cole HOU @SEA @LAA 38 1.94 2.34 14.2 1.72 0.24
Max Scherzer WSH PHI CLE 19.9 4.62 3.59 12.65 2.19 0.326
Patrick Corbin WSH PHI CLE 18.3 2.76 3.34 10.91 3.56 0.297
Eduardo Rodriguez BOS @TEX BAL 16 2.23 3.68 9.44 3.86 0.29

In the last run of 2 start pitchers, ERod has finally earned his way into the top grouping. The match-ups against Texas and Baltimore don’t hurt either. He’s been a bit lucky, but this is consecutive sub 4 ERA seasons that we have to factor in for draft season next year.

Pretty…Pretty Good

Name Team Opp 1 Opp 2 PR ERA 2nd Half FIP 2nd Half K/9 2nd Half BB/9 2nd Half BABIP 2nd Half
Aaron Nola PHI @WSH MIA 11.8 3.77 3.9 10.05 3.35 0.287
Jake Odorizzi MIN @DET @KC 11.7 4.2 3.22 10.49 3.08 0.356
Steven Matz NYM MIA ATL 1.9 3.29 3.52 8.56 2.37 0.286

The velocity bump that Odorizzi got earlier in the season has dissipated, but he’s gotten it together again over the last month plus. Since his July 30th start, Odorizzi has a 3.06 ERA and  29.6% K rate.

There’s evidence that he’s actually been unlucky during this stretch with a .359 BABIP and 2.24 FIP. With games against Detroit and Kansas City, you have to be throwing him this week.

 

Serviceable

Name Team Opp 1 Opp 2 PR ERA 2nd Half FIP 2nd Half K/9 2nd Half BB/9 2nd Half BABIP 2nd Half
Noah Syndergaard NYM MIA ATL 6.5 3.6 3.14 9.56 2.03 0.306
Aaron Civale CLE @CHW @WSH -3.2 2.05 2.95 6.7 1.86 0.266
Caleb Smith MIA @NYM @PHI 5.7 4.98 5.3 9.46 3.86 0.259

Caleb Smith starts are based on his skills rather than his 2nd half performance. If you’re set with strikeouts and chasing ratios, I can see dropping him into the Jumbled Mess below.We’ve seen some blowup s from both Thor and Caleb in this grouping. They are not without risk here in this last week of the season, but I trust them more than the names below this tier.

 

Jumbled Mess

Name Team Opp 1 Opp 2 PR ERA 2nd Half FIP 2nd Half K/9 2nd Half BB/9 2nd Half BABIP 2nd Half
Jeff Samardzija SF COL LAD 8.8 3.17 4.98 6.46 2.35 0.202
Sandy Alcantara MIA @NYM @PHI -3.5 4.23 4.59 7.59 3.58 0.255
Adam Wainwright STL @ARI CHC 4.8 3.25 3.59 7.47 3.13 0.316
Zach Eflin PHI @WSH MIA -0.1 4.44 4.58 6.75 2.84 0.296
Jon Lester CHC @PIT @STL 0.4 5.55 4.58 8.58 3.66 0.381
Alex Young ARI STL SD -0.8 3.84 4.69 8.26 3.39 0.281
Blake Snell TB BOS @TOR 0.8 0.69 2.37 12.46 2.77 0.208

Alcantara has a 2.93 ERA from August 5th to now. Blake Snell is still working on increasing his workload for a potential playoff run. Lester is on the list based on reputation, and I need him to show up this week for my Cubs. Mix of vets and youngsters in this group with different question marks for the last week of the regular season. Shark and Waino have seemingly turned it on, but there’s something I don’t trust.

Alex Young has quietly been putting up a nice run to end the season for the DBacks. FB, slider, curveball, and change up mix has proven useful even as a soft tosser, although he gets the boost from the left side.  Young had a bump in his K rate in AAA this season, and seems to have found something that works for him.

 

Brown Paper Bag

Name Team Opp 1 Opp 2 PR ERA 2nd Half FIP 2nd Half K/9 2nd Half BB/9 2nd Half BABIP 2nd Half
Dylan Bundy BAL @TOR @BOS -4.9 5.23 4.1 8.48 3.39 0.339
Adrian Houser MIL @CIN @COL -1.6 3.71 3.92 9.2 2.52 0.288
Jhoulys Chacin BOS @TB BAL -13.5 6.75 4.93 12.05 4.34 0.392
Spencer Turnbull DET MIN @CHW -9.5 7.23 4.46 9.51 4.18 0.393
Marco Gonazles SEA HOU OAK

Close your eyes, hold your nose, and hope for the best. Free Streamonator pick of the week: Dylan Bundy has 2 bad outings in the 2nd half that are coloring his numbers in the wrong way, but the occasional blow up is a concern with Bundy especially in his 2nd start at Boston.

 

I Immediately Regret This Decision

Name Team Opp 1 Opp 2 PR ERA 2nd Half FIP 2nd Half K/9 2nd Half BB/9 2nd Half BABIP 2nd Half
Kolby Allard TEX BOS NYY -9.8 4.25 3.74 6.8 3.83 0.319
Dillon Peters LAA OAK HOU -11.6 4.91 5.6 6.87 3.27 0.304
Tim Melville COL @SF MIL -12.2 5.4 7.17 6.99 3.81 0.269
Kevin Gausman CIN MIL @PIT -11.5 5.6 3.84 11.46 1.53 0.359
Mitch Keller PIT CHC CIN -16.8 5.79 6.04 5.08 2.28 0.29
Ross Detwiler CHW CLE DET -18 7.82 7.66 6.89 4.66 0.307
Clay Buchholz TOR BAL TB -15.9 6.39 4.64 6.04 2.13 0.333

 

Projected 2 Start Days and Schedule

Team Opp. 1 Opp. 2 Projected 2 Start Days
AL EAST
BAL @TOR @BOS Monday
BOS @TB/@TEX BAL Monday, Tuesday
NYY @TB @TEX X
TB BOS/NYY @TOR Monday
TOR BAL TB Monday
AL CENTRAL
CWS CLE DET Tuesday
CLE @CWS @WSH Tuesday
DET MIN @CWS Tuesday
KC ATL MIN X
MIN @DET @KC Tuesday
AL WEST
HOU @SEA @LAA Tuesday
LAA OAK HOU Tuesday
OAK @LAA @SEA X – 6 man
SEA HOU OAK Tuesday
TEX BOS NYY Tuesday
NL EAST
ATL @KC @NYM X
MIA @NYM @PHI Monday, Tuesday
NYM MIA ATL Monday, Tuesday
PHI @WSH MIA Monday, Tuesday
WSH PHI CLE Monday, Tuesday
NL CENTRAL
CHC @PIT @STL Tuesday
CIN MIL @PIT Tuesday – 6 man?
MIL @CIN @COL Tuesday
PIT CHC CIN Tuesday
STL @ARZ CHC Monday
NL WEST
ARZ STL SD Monday
COL @SF MIL Tuesday
LAD @SD @SF X – 6 man
SD LAD @ARZ X – 6 man
SF COL LAD Tuesday

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